The impact of BRICS expansion on global governance reform and its future development trend

1. The impact of BRICS expansion on global governance

The expansion of the BRICS cooperation mechanism reflects the profound changes in the international landscape, reflects the shift of the global power structure to the "global South", and represents the direction of political multi-polarization, economic globalization and democracy in international relations. As far as the main body of global governance is concerned, the expansion of BRICS membership has promoted exchanges and mutual learning among different civilizations in the "Global South", opened up more space for exploring their own path of modernization, and laid a more solid foundation for enhancing the ability of countries in the "Global South" to participate in global governance. As far as the object of global governance is concerned, the expansion of BRICS membership is conducive to the development of global economic governance, financial governance and energy and mineral governance in a more equitable and just direction. For the global governance mechanism, the expansion of BRICS members has enhanced the coordination and legitimacy of the "Global South" to promote reform of the global governance system.

(1) Opening up greater space for the Global South to move towards modernization through exchanges and mutual learning among different civilizations

All civilizations created by human society shine brightly. They have contributed to the modernization of all countries and made important contributions to the modernization of human society across time, space and borders. Each BRICS country has unique cultural traditions and social systems, but this has not prevented them from working together and learning from each other. As the third pillar of BRICS cooperation, people-to-people exchanges have not only promoted the exchange and integration of diverse cultures, promoted the understanding and respect among different cultures, but also provided new space for BRICS countries to jointly create a path of modernization.

First, the quest for modernization by the countries of the "Global South" begins with breaking the cultural hegemony of the West. Western countries pioneered modernization and preempted the right to speak of world knowledge. Through the material process of capitalist colonial globalization, the hegemonic hierarchical ideology and world view based on Western civilization and historical practice have expanded to the whole world, and Western countries have monopolized the power of interpretation of world development and international order. As Western value systems and cognitive models and their deep-rooted "standards of civilization" continue to shape the grand narrative of modernization, post-independent developing countries have little autonomy in establishing a voice that suits their needs. The material and institutional hegemony of Western centralism in the world system is relatively easy to identify and change, but its cultural hegemony is the most recessive and difficult to break. Western countries have always used Western civilization as the so-called "universal civilization" to promote the world, drawing lines with ideology and values, artificially creating divisions and conflicts, and suppressing the "global South" countries to seek modernization road space in line with their own culture and civilization.

Second, after the expansion, the BRICS countries have become an important platform for respecting and protecting the diversity of world civilizations. After the expansion, the BRICS cooperation mechanism includes many civilizations such as China, Russia, India, Latin America, Africa and Islam. There is no difference between superior and inferior civilizations, no one value should prevail over others, and there is not only one model of national governance that can achieve modernization and civilization progress. Although most countries, including the members of the BRICS, want to participate in the process of globalization and increase exchanges with Western countries, they hope that their political development path and cultural characteristics will not change in the process. Therefore, under the premise of respecting and protecting the diversity of world civilizations, the BRICS cooperation mechanism calls for dialogue, learning and understanding among different civilizations, breaking down estrangement and prejudice, eliminating fear and conflict, and building a new pattern of world civilizations featuring inclusiveness, mutual learning, cooperation and coexistence among different civilizations.

Third, the consensus on the diversity of world civilizations led by BRICS cooperation has provided more space for the "global South" to explore the possibility of an alternative development model of the "Western way". At present, people-to-people and cultural exchanges between BRICS countries have achieved remarkable results, with institutionalized exchanges and diversified actors, and the fields of projects are constantly expanding, which has strongly consolidated the social foundation of BRICS cooperation. On this basis, the BRICS countries have actively built an international mechanism for South-South cooperation and supported the independent development of developing countries with an international development cooperation model different from that of the West. The expansion of BRICS membership has facilitated exchanges and cooperation among civilizations, provided more space for deepening South-South cooperation to generate new knowledge production and discourse systems, and to generate social development paradigms and knowledge systems in line with the development of countries in the "Global South". The expansion of BRICS membership and the growing attraction of the countries of the "Global South" fundamentally reflect the dissatisfaction of developing countries with the Western countries' monopoly of development rights and intellectual discourse rights based on cultural hegemony, and reflect their hope to break the Western power of theoretical interpretation of world development and gain practical initiative in cultural exchanges and mutual learning, and explore a modernization path suitable for their own reality.

(2) Provide stronger impetus for promoting economic globalization that benefits all and is inclusive

We will uphold the BRICS spirit, build an open world economy, facilitate the free and convenient flow of factors of production around the world, and make economic globalization more inclusive and beneficial to all.

First, sustainable development in the Global South requires inclusive economic globalization. Economic globalization is a global economic interaction process in which all countries participate, and every country has the opportunity to participate and the right to development. In recent years, under the continuous impact of the anti-globalization trend, the globalization process is facing the pressure of stagnation or even retrogression, and the open world economic system is facing the risk of fragmentation and fragmentation. Populism, the resurgence of protectionism, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine crisis have made Western countries, which once led globalization, start to view the process of globalization with a zero-sum mentality. They have weaponized the interdependence of economic globalization, built exclusive industrial and supply chain arrangements, and become the main enablers of "de-globalization" and "anti-globalization". This trend not only hinders the recovery of the world economy, but also increases the cost of globalization for the countries of the "global South" and fails to address the development imbalance between and within countries caused by the previous round of globalization. Therefore, building an open world economy and solving the structural problems of unbalanced and dysfunctional world development are the main demands of the "Global South" countries for a new type of globalization. For example, while Western countries have proposed projects such as the "Global Gateway" and the "Global Infrastructure Investment Partnership" to compete with the BRICS countries for influence in developing countries, the expansion of the BRICS countries and the many countries of the "global South" that want to join the BRICS show their dissatisfaction with the Western-led globalization.

Second, after the expansion, BRICS will contribute more to world economic growth and will be a major driving force for the new type of globalization. After the expansion, the potential and resilience of cooperation within the BRICS have been enhanced, providing a stronger driving force for leading a new round of globalization. The role of BRICS in promoting world economic growth is greater than that of the G7. Compared with the G7, the expanded BRICS will play a more significant role as an engine of world economic growth. According to the International Monetary Fund, by 2027 the BRICS will account for 37.6 per cent of world GDP (at purchasing power parity), compared with 28.2 per cent for the G7. The expanded BRICS will make full use of the different development experience and scientific and technological innovation capabilities of its members, and play a positive role in enhancing the knowledge production capacity of developing countries and promoting sustainable development. The BRICS cooperation mechanism has established the BRICS Joint Committee on Space Cooperation, the Partnership on the New Industrial Revolution and the Industrial Capacity Center. These initiatives aim to promote cooperation and innovation in cutting-edge technologies such as smart manufacturing, artificial intelligence, digitalization, and clean energy, and help more countries of the Global South enter new technology fields, improve their ability to create intellectual property, and adopt alternative technology standards. In addition, the expansion of the BRICS countries will also lead to a new round of economic integration. After the expansion of BRICS membership, the trade volume among BRICS countries will become larger. In terms of purchasing power parity in 2022, the Greater BRICS trade exports accounted for 24.8% of the world's total trade exports, of which 14.8% went to the Greater BRICS members. China's growing role as a supplier of industrial and consumer goods and an importer of commodities has been a key force in economic cooperation within BRICS. When the US and Europe launch green protectionism against China under the pretext of "production capacity protection", the cooperation between China and other BRICS countries in the fields of new energy and digital economy will be further deepened. In addition, Western sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine crisis have led to a shift in Russian export destinations to the larger BRICS markets, especially China and India.

Third, the New Development Bank's stronger financing capacity will bring new impetus to the sustainable development of the Global South. Although the New Development Bank and the expansion of BRICS members are two separate processes, they are still part of the BRICS cooperation mechanism. In 2021, the New Development Bank successfully expanded its membership, and Bangladesh, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Uruguay were admitted as members, making the "Global South" feature of the New Development Bank more prominent and its financing sources more diversified. The inclusion of Saudi Arabia and other cash-rich economies could expand the BRICS 'financial support capacity for the countries of the Global South. Brics will provide low-cost and targeted financial and technical support to newly joined countries in the Middle East and North Africa to promote peace and development in the relevant regions. In fact, studies have shown that BRICs-led international development institutions' support for financing infrastructure and other projects in developing countries provides external options for the "Global South" countries, weakening their incentive to comply with the West's harsh aid conditions and reducing the costs of participating in economic globalization.

(3) Lay a more solid foundation for promoting the orderly development of a multi-polar world

It is the common aspiration of the countries of the "Global South" to promote the building of a new multi-polar international order. The expansion of BRICS membership will enhance the Global South's ability to shape the international order in the three aspects of global energy, minerals and monetary governance, and will be more conducive to serving the strategic independence and development space of the Global South.

First, the expanded BRICS will enhance its structural power in global energy governance. First, the expansion has expanded the space for BRICS energy cooperation and reshaped the global energy market system. Traditional oil and gas producers such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iran, energy transit countries such as Egypt and Ethiopia, and energy consumers such as China, India, Brazil and South Africa are all within the BRICS cooperation mechanism, which has restructured the global traditional energy market system, helped the BRICS countries balance energy security and energy transformation, and improved the resilience of the energy system. Reducing the impact of anti-globalization and trade barriers in the energy sector. After the expansion, the world exports of natural gas, crude oil and refined oil products of BRICS countries accounted for 36%, 13% and 34%, respectively, an increase of 21%, 4% and 11%. Secondly, the expansion will promote the clean energy transition and promote the modernization of the energy industry chain. The accession of new member states will not only bring cooperation opportunities in the field of traditional energy, but also promote the development of new energy. As an important member of the BRICS cooperation mechanism, China will play an important role in new energy cooperation and jointly promote clean technology innovation. For these reasons, the BRICS countries will enhance their agenda-setting and rule-making capacity on global climate change and energy transition, and promote the reform of the current global energy governance system to make it more fair and equitable.

Second, the expanded BRICS will enhance its voice in the field of key minerals in the world. Brics countries have 72% of the world's rare earth resources, 75% of manganese, 50% of graphite, 28% of nickel and more than 10% of copper and other important minerals, making the greater BRICS in the rare earth and other key minerals production and global reserves occupy an important position. In the context of global green transformation and accelerated digital development, the governance of global key minerals has become an important field in the game of great powers and the transformation of international order. In recent years, Western countries have introduced key mineral strategies, signed key mineral agreements with their Allies, and contacted resource-producing countries through international organizations led by the Group of Seven and the International Energy Agency under the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, with the intention of building an exclusive "key mineral cooperation club". Enhance the competitiveness of Western countries in the global critical minerals and digital transformation, and thereby maintain their own ability to shape the future international order. After the expansion, the BRICS countries will enhance the status of the BRICS in the management of key minerals in the world by coordinating policies on key minerals, optimizing industrial chain and supply chain layout, and technological innovation cooperation, and create a more competitive and fairer industrial division of labor.

Third, the expanded BRICS will be more motivated to promote the reform of the global financial governance system. About 90% of the world's foreign exchange transactions are conducted primarily through US and European banks using the US dollar as the main currency. Western financial sanctions against Russia highlight the strong systemic influence that the United States still has through the Bretton Woods institutions and its central role in the global financial governance system. The establishment of a BRICS payment system to break away from the US and Western-dominated SWIFT system is widely supported by the BRICS countries. The BRICS countries hope to lead the profound reform of the global financial system, explore the possibility of a multi-currency governance system other than the dollar polarization on the premise of promoting trade facilitation and security, and make efforts to enhance the fairness of the global financial governance system and the financial dominance of developing countries.

Brics expansion is conducive to making the global financial governance system more open, inclusive, balanced and beneficial to all. The Greater BRICS includes major commodity exporters and importers, and the BRICS payment platform can serve as a channel for foreign exchange transactions in currencies other than the US dollar. At the BRICS Johannesburg Summit in 2023, the BRICS countries reached a consensus on deepening financial cooperation, requiring the central bank governors and finance ministers of the member countries to submit a BRICS payment system construction plan before the summit in Kazan, Russia, in 2024, and establish a multilateral digital settlement payment platform called "BRICS Bridge". At present, the BRICS has established a payments working group, a network of financial think tanks, and a contingent reserve arrangement, which can reduce the Global South's dependence on the US dollar and Western banks, and provide the countries of the Global South with an alternative to Western-dominated institutions. The significance of BRICS financial cooperation in global economic governance lies in breaking the monopoly of the current highly centralized cross-border payment platforms and the international monetary system.

(4) It will help strengthen the collective action of the "Global South" in promoting global governance reform

Emerging markets and developing countries are rising as a group, and they have gradually transformed from runners in global governance to conscious promoters. At a time when the current global governance system is "out of order, ineffective and unbalanced", BRICS expansion actually provides a stronger coordination mechanism and momentum for the "Global South" to promote global governance reform and improvement.

First, the expansion of BRICS membership has enhanced the representativeness and legitimacy of the mechanism. The world share of the Greater BRICS population increased from 41% to 46%, and the world share of GDP (at 2022 purchasing power parity) increased from 31.6% to 35.6%. Since the new members contribute about 4% of the BRICS cooperation mechanism's GDP, the significance of the expansion should not be limited to purely economic impact, but should be reflected in the participation and representation of global governance mechanisms such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organization and the Bretton Woods institutions. For example, the BRICS 'voting power in the International Monetary Fund has increased from 14.80% to 18.61%, exceeding the 15% critical minority voting threshold needed for the IMF to veto. As American scholar Ikenboli said, in the context of intensifying competition among great powers, Western countries are no longer able to fully play their leadership, and the "global South" will promote the development of the global governance system towards a more diversified and inclusive direction.

Second, the expansion of BRICS membership can enhance the coordination of the countries of the "Global South" in global governance. The institutional complex features of global governance mechanisms are increasingly obvious, increasing the cost of developing countries' participation in global governance. In fact, few countries in the "global South" have been able to take advantage of the institutional complex in global governance and adopt institutional strategies, including regime shift and forum shopping. In view of the influence of BRICS on global governance, the expansion of BRICS mechanism can provide a new platform for the relatively weak "Global South" countries to participate in global governance, reduce the cost of their participation in global governance, and strengthen the global governance influence of the "Global South". While continuing to emphasize the role of the G20 as the premier platform for global economic governance, the BRICS Johannesburg Declaration clearly states that the goal of the BRICS is to amplify the voice of the "global South." After the expansion, the number of BRICS members in the G20 has reached six. With the accession of the African Union to the G20, the influence of new BRICS members such as Egypt and Ethiopia in the G20 will also increase. Therefore, the membership expansion enhances the status of the BRICS cooperation mechanism in the G20, and will enable the BRICS countries and Western countries to have stronger bargaining power in the G20. In addition, with India (2023), Brazil (2024) and South Africa (2025) assuming the rotating presidency of the G20, the expanded BRICS will be in a better position to advance the priorities of the Global South, including reforming the Bretton Woods institutions and increasing the representation of developing countries.

2. Challenges faced by BRICS after membership expansion and ways to deepen cooperation

For any multilateral mechanism, membership expansion brings both challenges and opportunities. The BRICS cooperation mechanism should strike a balance between "expansion and deepening", deepen intra-mechanism cooperation and "BRICS plus", enhance organizational cohesion building and enhance the institutional potential of BRICS countries.

(1) Facing challenges to the BRICS cooperation mechanism

After the expansion of the BRICS cooperation mechanism, it is necessary to think about how to increase the diversity and representation of the members, and at the same time overcome the collective action problems faced by larger cooperation, so as to make the expansion mechanism more stable and sustainable. After the expansion, the greater diversity within the mechanism may lead to more differences among members, and it is difficult to reach agreement on many controversial issues. The challenges facing the BRICS cooperation mechanism come from both internal and external sources, and are characterized by internal and external linkage. Internal challenges include: First, some member countries have serious internal crises, and the trend of domestic political situation has greatly hindered their participation in the BRICS cooperation mechanism. For example, after Argentina's far-right party came to power, it has decided not to participate in the BRICS cooperation mechanism for the time being. Second, geopolitical competition among members will limit the potential of the BRICS cooperation mechanism. In terms of border disputes, the joint construction of the Belt and Road Initiative, and the leadership of the Global South, India views its relations with China through the lens of strategic competition. The historic geopolitical competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East is facing new challenges due to the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Egypt and Ethiopia are locked in a long-running dispute over the management of Nile water. The contradictions among these members have limited the depth and breadth of BRICS cooperation. Third, different members' visions for BRICS cooperation have become more different, with different levels of emphasis and participation. Even individual members cannot be excluded from playing the role of "disrupters". India, for example, is beginning to position itself as a "South-West power" that is deeply intertwined with the west in terms of strategic goals and values, while at the same time "deeply rooted in the Global south."

The external challenge is mainly that Western countries take advantage of the diversity of BRICS countries and contradictions among BRICS members to divide and weaken. Different BRICS members have different degrees of contact with Western countries in economic, military and other fields, and some countries adopt a "non-Western but not anti-Western" strategy, which is easy to be pressured by Western countries. For example, BRICS members such as India, Brazil, and South Africa have been invited to the G7 summit, and India has also participated in US-led exclusive multilateral arrangements such as the Quad and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF). Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other Middle Eastern countries have a long history and profound foundation for military cooperation with the United States. These countries have been under constant pressure from the United States to strengthen scientific and technological cooperation with China. However, the fundamental challenge facing the BRICS is in the economic field, where Western countries are trying to weaken the foundation of the BRICS cooperation mechanism. As emerging markets, BRICS countries are already competitive in their industries. On the one hand, Western countries "decoupage" and "de-risk" the economy and science and technology of China and Russia through science and technology sanctions, science and technology control, etc., on the other hand, they continue to enhance their science and technology and economic relations with other BRICS countries through "Friendshore outsourcing", which promotes fierce competition among BRICS countries and their enterprises and weakens the economic impetus of BRICS cooperation.

(2) Paths for deepening BRICS cooperation in the future

After the expansion, the BRICS cooperation mechanism has new opportunities and cooperation potential. Member states should follow the international trend of the rise of emerging markets and developing countries, adhere to the BRICS spirit, speed up institutional building, deepen strategic communication, strengthen cooperation in various fields, and promote high-quality partnerships.

a. Upholding the BRICS spirit and expanding the "BRICS influence" in global governance

At a time when the role of the UN system is weakening and the West is strengthening the "small house and high wall" and building a "parallel system", the role and value of the BRICS countries in promoting the reform and improvement of the global governance system are more prominent. After the expansion, the BRICS cooperation mechanism should adhere to the spirit of "openness, inclusiveness, cooperation and win-win", and take consolidating and building a new multi-polar international order as the biggest consensus of the BRICS countries. The expanded BRICS should further pool the strength of emerging markets and developing countries, strengthen cooperation in energy, finance and currency, strengthen dialogue and exchanges with more emerging markets and developing countries through "BRICS Plus", and play a bigger role in global governance.

b. Strengthen economic and trade cooperation to enhance the internal driving force of BRICS cooperation

In view of the asymmetry of the economic size of China and other BRICS members, China should play a central driving role and promote the overall development momentum of BRICS with bilateral economic and trade cooperation between China and BRICS members. The accession of new members will bring new demand, new resources and new vitality to BRICS cooperation, open up a new space for BRICS cooperation, and further demonstrate the flexibility and advantages of "BRICS plus" cooperation. Brics countries should strengthen cooperation in industrial chain and supply chain, improve and stabilize global industrial policies, and prevent Western countries from depriving developing countries of their legitimate development space and rights. Compared with developed countries, BRICS countries are at a weak position in the new scientific and technological revolution. Member states should actively promote the building of a "new industrial revolution partnership", actively foster new growth drivers in digital, smart and green development, jointly implement the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable development, and promote common development of the world.

c. Deepen strategic communication and promote institutional building of BRICS cooperation

Western countries will make use of their existing advantages in international power, and make use of their geographical relations with some BRICS countries and differences among BRICS members to sow discord and create contradictions, so as to disrupt and undermine the development and growth of the BRICS cooperation mechanism. To this end, BRICS countries should strengthen the institutionalization of cooperation mechanisms, establish permanent institutions, formulate a BRICS cooperation charter, improve the BRICS membership expansion mechanism, and provide institutional guarantees for BRICS countries to deepen communication and coordination and strengthen strategic independence. In addition, BRICS countries should continuously enhance people-to-people exchanges and cooperation, promote the common values of mankind, and implement the global civilization initiative, so as to provide support for BRICS countries to explore and develop modernization paths suited to their respective national conditions.

d. Define the organizational positioning and give play to BRICS 'leading role in Global South cooperation

The historical evolution of these concepts, from the "Third World" to the "Global South," reflects the strategic autonomy of developing countries in the great power competition, as well as their gradual rise in economic size and politics as strategic resources with powerful geopolitical influence. In the face of the autonomy of the "Global South", the increase of its geographical role, and the international background of dozens of developing countries queuing to join the BRICS, it is necessary to further clarify the organizational identity and international positioning of the "Global South" of BRICS, enrich the "BRICS +" mechanism, and build BRICS into the most important platform for solidarity and cooperation among developing countries. The BRICS cooperation mechanism should properly handle its relations with the Group of Seven and the Group of Twenty, and jointly give play to the coordinating role of the BRICS countries in leading the "global South" to participate in global governance reform.(Author: Zhang Jiaolong, Assistant Researcher, Institute of Global Governance and International Organizations, China Institute of International Studies)