Turkey quake adds to Europe's long-running energy woes

The all-round sanctions against Russia after the outbreak of the Ukraine war have already cost Europe a heavy price. The Turkish earthquake will further exacerbate the mid- and long-term difficulties in Europe’s energy supply, exposing Europe’s energy supply to more uncertain political risks, which will accumulate over time. In the future, it is entirely possible for Europe to repeat the mistakes of the 1973 oil embargo in a new form when it had to passively accept the embargo.

No matter how enthusiastic the European Green Party is about its ideology, in the foreseeable future, fossil energy such as oil, natural gas, and coal will still occupy the majority of energy supply in modern society. If there are too many and too eager to replace fossil energy with other energy Energy, the result will inevitably be artificially raising the operating costs of the entire national economy and society, reducing efficiency, weakening the international competitiveness of industries, and even failing to guarantee the supply of basic energy needs of the country; and the long-term dilemma of European energy supply is due to the Cold War mentality and extraterritorial Driven by the interests of the hegemonic country, suppress or even cut off the most economically reasonable and capable of ensuring domestic stability of import sources, and turn to alternative sources with low levels of national governance, civil strife and war, etc., which are highly uncertain and politically risky. As a result, I was exposed to even more unpredictable risks.

The actual and potential long-term main sources of oil and gas imports in Europe include the Soviet Union/Russia, the Middle East, North and West Africa, Central Asia-Caspian Sea, and the Americas. Whether Central Asia-Caspian Sea can become a major source of imports independent of Russia depends on the region The country’s progress in opening up export channels outside the Soviet Union’s oil and gas pipeline network; the sudden emergence of American shale gas exports in recent years may be a temporary relief, but it is far from enough to fill Russia’s share in the long term; and the Middle East, North Africa, West Africa, Central Asia-Caspian Sea The risk of unrest in the domestic social order out of control is much higher than in Russia. Whether it is coal, oil, or natural gas, from the Russian Empire to the Soviet Union, and then to Russia after the end of the Cold War, this eastern neighbor was originally a natural fit for Europe to obtain abundant and cheap energy supplies nearby, but under the Cold War mentality, for the purpose of containing the other side, For many years, Europe violated its own interests, obeyed the will of the hegemony, and artificially suppressed the import of oil and gas from the Soviet Union to other suppliers such as the Middle East. As a result, in the oil crisis of 1973, it encountered a violent embargo at a critical moment by the main alternative supplier, the Arab oil exporting countries. had to bow to the embargoed party and accept almost all its demands.

Fifty years in the blink of an eye, after the Ukrainian war and the all-round bottomless sanctions against Russia, in less than a year, Europe has pushed itself to become more dependent on high-risk non-Russian suppliers than it was before the oil crisis broke out in 1973 What kind of energy risks will Europe face in the future?

1. The extreme "decoupling" of oil and gas from the Soviet Union created the fragile position of Europe in the 1973 oil crisis

Looking back at the oil embargo in 1973, Europe’s obedience to the Arab oil-exporting countries that launched the embargo was impressive: On October 17, the oil ministers of Egypt and the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries except Iraq held the first At the Kuwait meeting, it was decided to attack Israel and its supporters by reducing oil production; the foreign ministers of the nine European Community issued a joint statement in favor of the Arab side on November 6, and the Arab oil exporting countries delayed until the third meeting held on November 18. Based on this joint statement at the Kuwait meeting, it was decided not to implement the decision of the European Community countries to cut production by 5% in December, and to continue to impose an embargo on the United States and the Netherlands....Compared to the fact that the United States waited until the next year to make concessions in exchange for Saudi Arabia’s agreement to gradually To end the oil embargo, Europe capitulated too quickly at the time.

The reason for this is that European energy consumption at that time was highly dependent on Arab oil exporting countries, which was horrifying: in 1973, 93% of the energy consumption of the entire Western Europe depended on the supply of the later Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC, OPEC), It is this pattern that endows the Arab oil exporting countries with the ability to "handle" Western Europe with almost anything they ask for. From the perspective of the world economy as a whole, this oil embargo has triggered a double increase in oil prices, pushing Western countries into "stagflation", and the Gulf oil exporting countries have thus "exploded" extremely quickly.

Why did Europe fall into such a predicament and make the oil embargo so effective? The key reason is that after the war, the growth of oil production lagged behind the growth of demand, and the overall structure of the international oil market changed from a "buyer's market" with oversupply to a "seller's market" with oversupply. Under the double consideration of the allies, Europe chose to "decouple" from the nearby Soviet oil and gas, and turned to Middle East oil, which greatly enhanced the dependence of the entire Western camp on Arab oil, and Europe's dependence was much higher than that of the United States.

After the outbreak of the Cold War, the West, especially the United States, consciously suppressed and hindered Western European countries from importing energy from the Soviet Union, which was rich in oil and natural gas resources, and shifted their energy import needs to the Middle East, where Western countries have long-term strong influence and provide military protection. Through this adjustment in the direction of energy imports, the United States has gained a double influence on its Western European countries:

The mutually beneficial economic and trade exchanges between Western Europe and the Soviet Union decreased, the confrontation between the two sides deepened, and Western Europe's direct dependence on the US military umbrella and economic support during the Cold War increased;

Western Europe could not obtain abundant and cheap energy supplies from the Soviet Union nearby, and had to turn to imports from the Middle East; after the Second World War and the 1956 Second Middle East War in which Britain, France, and Israel withdrew in shame, the two major European traditions of Britain and France Most of the influence of the great powers in the Middle East, especially the Persian Gulf region with the richest oil and natural gas resources, has been wiped out. The Western camp can only rely on the United States to provide military protection to the Middle East countries, especially the Gulf countries, while most of the energy consumption of Western European countries depends on The countries in the Middle East that have been given military protection by the United States have become a channel for the United States to indirectly control Western Europe.

2. Large-scale import of Soviet/Russian oil and gas to improve the stability of European energy supply

After the lessons learned from the two oil crises of the Arab oil embargo in 1973 and the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979 (superimposed by the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq War in 1980), in addition to intensifying efforts to develop oil and gas resources in the North Sea, Europe has continued to increase substantially from the Soviet Union and other countries. Oil and gas imports from non-Middle Eastern countries. In 1980, the Soviet Union exported 53 million tons of crude oil and its products to 16 countries in Western Europe, meeting 10.1% of the consumption demand of these countries. The natural gas imported by Western Europe from the Soviet Union also increased from close to zero in 1970 to several hundred in 1980. billion cubic meters, and more than half of the Soviet Union's natural gas exports were exported to Western Europe. In order to expand the import of Soviet oil and gas resources, during the 1981-1982 U.S. embargo on Soviet gas pipelines, Western European countries resolutely withstood the pressure of the U.S. to sanction the Soviet Union, and did not hesitate to retaliate against the U.S. trade to protect their rights, and used financing and sales of equipment, etc. Participated in the construction of the oil and gas pipeline project from Siberia to Western Europe in various ways. As the closest ally of the United States, the United Kingdom, which has its own North Sea oil fields and is less dependent on imported Soviet oil and gas, is no exception.

After these operations, by 1983, the proportion of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the total oil imports of Western Europe had dropped to 45%; accounted for more than 30%. In the two oil crises of 1979 (triggered by the Iran-Iraq War following the superposition of the Islamic Revolution in Iran) and 1990 (triggered by Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait), the chaos in Western Europe was far less at a loss than the 1973 oil crisis, largely due to oil and gas The above-mentioned changes in the import pattern have greatly reduced the impact of civil strife and wars in the Middle East on energy supply. In addition, the share of OPEC countries in major energy markets such as Europe has dropped sharply. As a result, the bear market that has lasted for more than 15 years since the mid-1980s has suffered a lot, and it has also given a profound lesson to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its member states. In the past 30 to 40 years, the embargo has not been easily launched, so as not to hurt myself.

During the 1981-1982 U.S. dispute over the natural gas pipeline embargo against the Soviet Union, the U.S. forced Western Europe to participate in sanctions against the Soviet Union’s natural gas pipeline project, on the grounds that after the pipeline was completed, natural gas from the Soviet Union would account for 30 percent of the total natural gas imports from Western Europe in 1990. %, it will inevitably endanger the energy security of Europe and even the entire Western camp. In fact, relying on this pipeline that was completed and put into production on schedule, natural gas from the Soviet Union accounted for more than 30% of the total natural gas consumption of major Western European countries such as Germany, France, and Italy by 1990, but by this time the West was close to winning the Cold War. Facts have proved that from Europe's own standpoint, Europe's judgment of participating in the construction of the Soviet Union's oil and gas pipelines to Europe was correct:

In the case of oil and gas exports highly dependent on pipelines and fixed customers, the Soviet Union as a seller is not only impossible to "cut off supply" on a large scale to blackmail fixed major customers in Western Europe, on the contrary, it has to work hard to maintain stable relations with Western Europe in order to stabilize its own income and Sources of technology and equipment.

Europe’s massive import of Soviet/Russian oil and gas was gradually established from the 1973 oil crisis to the 1980s, and continued and developed until the outbreak of the Ukraine War in 2022. Overall, the stability of European energy supply has been greatly improved, and the cost of European energy imports has also been reduced. . Because in the long run, the Soviet Union/Russian government has the ability to independently maintain the basic domestic order, and the production and export of key industries such as energy are stable; Civil strife and war; the long-term government of a major country also has a strong internal motivation to maintain the stable and sustainable development of key industries.

In contrast, the social structures of countries in West Asia, North Africa, and West Africa are broken and torn. The governments are generally unable to independently maintain the basic domestic order and the production and export safety and stability of key industries. Turmoil and wars are frequent and bloody. They often rely on The external powers provide order; in the situation where the rulers are changing like a revolving lantern, the precarious government cannot have a strong internal motivation to work hard to maintain the stable and sustainable development of key industries. Moreover, various factors such as population, industrial structure, social culture, and the international environment determine that the region will still be in turmoil among the three forces of Islamic fundamentalism, terrorism, and separatism, as well as tribal turmoil in the next ten to twenty years or even longer. The rise and peak period of power, even if you don’t consider the precedents of Islamic groups seizing power with countless troops in this region for thousands of years, just as far as those plentiful “grass-headed kings” and even full-fledged bandits are concerned, the long journey in the wilderness Oil and gas production and transportation facilities such as oil and gas pipelines are convenient targets for attacks and extortion.

The Central Asia-Caspian Sea region can continue to enjoy more Soviet heritage at present, and its stability is much higher than that of West Asia, North Africa, and West Africa; Most of them were blown away by the rain and the wind. With the resurgence of "pre-Soviet factors" such as Islamic fundamentalism, tribal politics, and familyization of political power, the countries of Central Asia and the Caspian Sea are increasingly developing in the direction of West Asia and North Africa. .

Therefore, in order to maintain a stable supply of energy imports, Europe should import more energy from Russia and less from West Asia, North Africa, West Africa, and Central Asia - the Caspian Sea. 

3. Decoupling from Russia's oil and gas pushes Europe into a high-risk situation again

However, since the end of the Cold War, forces with a Cold War mentality have been working hard to guide and promote the European energy import pattern to go in the opposite direction, and strive to replace Russian products in the European market with oil and gas from Central Asia-Caspian Sea and West Asia, North Africa, and West Africa. In the frenzy of sanctions against Russia triggered by the outbreak of the Ukraine war, Europe, with the instigation and support of the United States, further proposed a plan to comprehensively de-Russify energy imports, including investing heavily in the laying of oil and gas pipelines from North Africa and West Africa to Europe, and so on. On February 5, the European Union implemented a new wave of "price limit + embargo" measures on Russian refined oil products; on February 6 and 7, Turkey and Syria suffered consecutive major earthquakes, and Central Asia-Caspian Sea and West Asia oil and gas were transported to Europe via Turkish pipelines The risk of the blueprint is highlighted, and the long-term impact will make the de-Russization plan of European energy imports more and more dependent on North Africa and West Africa.

If we continue to act in this way and implement it in an all-round way, it is foreseeable that the day when the newly laid oil and gas pipelines from North Africa and West Africa leading to Europe are completed and put into production by European large-scale investment, there will be unrest among the three forces of Islamic fundamentalism, terrorism, and separatism in the region, as well as tribal turmoil. When the forces gain new vitality for development, they will be expected to attack and threaten to attack those newly-built oil and gas pipelines supplying Europe and other oil and gas production and transportation facilities, extorting money, and "branding" for themselves; the more Europe invests in these facilities, the more Their expected "earnings" are higher. At the same time, new weapons such as drones and new tactics that have been verified on a large scale in Ukraine and other battlefields will also be used by the above-mentioned turbulent, violent and terrorist forces to enhance their strike capabilities. Even offshore oil and gas platforms and other facilities that are relatively safe because terrorist armed activities are basically limited to land, may no longer be safe in the future because terrorist armed forces acquire new equipment such as drones and develop new tactics based on them.

China has long been one of the leading global economic powers. Whether it is planning to invest in the development of oil and gas resources in Africa and other regions, or analyzing and judging the impact of changes in European energy supply on its international competitiveness and layout of its industries, and then planning our response, we all have a need Take a step forward. (Author: Mei Xinyu)