The South Pacific Offensive of the "Indo-Pacific" Strategy: Status quo, dynamics and prospects

As an important part of the "Indo-Pacific" region, the South Pacific is becoming the policy focus of the "Indo-Pacific" strategy of the United States, Japan, Australia and India. The Pacific Ocean, Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean together form the "Indo-Pacific Arc" in the geographical sense. Compared with other regions, the South Pacific has gained a great strategic status in the process of changing its vision from "Asia-Pacific" to "Indo-Pacific". Due to the natural advantages of the United States, Japan, Australia and India in the South Pacific region, Pacific island countries have become an important direction for countries to implement the "Indo-Pacific" strategy. Hedging the influence of the "Belt and Road" is one of the important goals of the "Indo-Pacific" strategy. The strengthening of the political, economic and military presence of the United States, Japan, Australia and India in the South Pacific region will further intensify the great power competition in the South Pacific region, and have an important impact on the advancement of the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" in the Pacific island countries. In the face of the South Pacific offensive of the "Indo-Pacific" strategy and China's "Belt and Road" initiative, Pacific island countries are faced with major diplomatic choices.

First of all, the Indo-Pacific exists as a geographical concept. The Indo-Pacific region includes a vast area from the east coast of the United States to the Indian Ocean, that is, the Asia-Pacific region in a broad sense plus the entire Indian Ocean region. As a geopolitical concept, "Indo-Pacific" can be understood as a comprehensive strategic design by the United States, Japan, Australia and India to isolate China through "values diplomacy", contain China through military alliances, and compete with China economically. The concept of "Indo-Pacific" has been put forward by different countries on different occasions in the early 21st century, Australia and Japan are the first countries to elaborate "Indo-Pacific" in official documents, but the "Indo-Pacific" has not attracted the general attention of the international community. Until the Trump administration released the US National Security Strategy Report in 2017, the "Indo-Pacific" suddenly began to become the focus of the international community and public opinion after the packaging and publicity of the United States, and the "Indo-Pacific" concept of the United States was further elaborated in the "Indo-Pacific Strategy Report" issued by the Department of Defense in 2019. It is precisely because the "Indo-Pacific" concept has been officially "certified" by the United States, Japan, Australia and India have begun to more actively carry out diplomatic layout around the "Indo-Pacific".

The formation of the "Indo-Pacific" concept means that the United States, Japan, Australia and India have a huge space for cooperation and development in the "Indo-Pacific" region, but it does not mean that the four parties have reached a consensus on the understanding and policy of the "Indo-Pacific" strategy. In November 2017, officials from the foreign ministries of the United States, Japan, Australia and India met on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders' meeting in Vietnam, and although all four countries acknowledged the importance of the Indo-Pacific region, the post-meeting statements issued by each side had different priorities. Therefore, the "Indo-Pacific" strategy is both unified and different, and is a collection of unilateral, bilateral and multilateral strategies formulated by the United States, Japan, Australia and India according to their respective interests in the region.

There is no doubt that the conceptual change from "Asia-Pacific" to "Indo-Pacific" highlights the importance of the Indian Ocean in geopolitics, and the evolution of the strategic position of the South Pacific region, which is an inevitable part of the "Indo-Pacific" in geographical terms, is also worthy of attention. At present, scholars focus on the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia, and pay little attention to the status of the South Pacific in the "Indo-Pacific" strategy. In addition to Australia itself being the traditional large country in the South Pacific region, how the United States, Japan and India position the South Pacific's role in the "Indo-Pacific" system will have a major impact on the development of Pacific island countries. At present, China has signed Belt and Road cooperation agreements and memorandums of understanding with nine Pacific island countries that have established diplomatic relations. With the establishment of bilateral comprehensive strategic partnership, the development of relations between China and Pacific island countries is entering a new stage. Because the "Indo-Pacific" strategy has the "natural" function of containing China, it challenges China to promote the "Belt and Road" in the South Pacific region.

By comparing the status changes of Pacific island countries in the "Asia-Pacific" and "Indo-Pacific" perspectives, this paper analyzes the new South Pacific policies of the United States and Australia and the special relations between the United States, Japan, Australia and India and Pacific Island countries, and discusses the implementation status, dynamic mechanism and development prospects of the "Indo-Pacific" strategy in the South Pacific region.

I. The status of Pacific Island countries in the "Indo-Pacific" strategy: Upgrade or downgrade?

Geographically, the South Pacific is far from the global political and economic center, and the process of national independence after World War II is extremely slow. There is no capital accumulation, lack of connectivity, and slow economic development, which together constitute the contemporary national conditions of the Pacific island countries. Political and economic marginalization has led to a long period of geopolitical neglect of Pacific island countries. In 2012, then US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited the South Pacific and participated in the Pacific Islands Forum. The Pacific Island countries began to attract international attention. In the process of shifting from the "Asia-Pacific" to the "Indo-Pacific", the strategic position of Pacific island countries has undergone great changes.

(1) Pacific Island countries under the "Asia-Pacific" vision

Before the rise of the "Indo-Pacific", "Asia-Pacific" was a concept that was frequently used geographically, economically and geopolitically. Comparing the changing roles of Pacific island countries under the two systems helps us better understand the position of Pacific Island countries under the "Indo-Pacific" strategy. From a purely geographical perspective, "Asia-Pacific" includes East Asia, Southeast Asia and other parts of Asia on the west coast of the Pacific Ocean, as well as Oceania and the island countries of the Pacific Ocean. Pacific island countries are mainly located in the South Pacific region, with a small land area and a huge sea area. They are composed of Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia, occupying most of the Marine space from the west coast of the Americas to East Asia. According to the provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the Pacific island countries have a total of 17.296 million square kilometers of Marine exclusive economic zone (EEZ), which is close to 8% of the Earth's surface area and 10% of the ocean area, and is an important part of the "Asia-Pacific" geography.

From the origin of the concept, the economic significance of "Asia-Pacific" is more important. In November 1989, Australia, the United States, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Canada and six ASEAN countries held the first APEC Ministerial Meeting in Canberra, the capital of Australia, which was the first time that "Asia-Pacific" officially appeared in the name of an international organization. Subsequent APEC meetings have continuously enriched the connotation and development direction of "Asia-Pacific". Its main objective is to achieve prosperity and development in the Asia-Pacific region through trade and investment liberalization, trade and investment facilitation, and economic and technical cooperation. Australia has played a decisive role in promoting the implementation of the Asia-Pacific concept. Australia has long hoped to maintain its alliance with the United States while being deeply embedded in the booming economic development of East Asia, and the "Asia-Pacific" has shaped a strategic space for the geographically middle Australia to have the best of both worlds. Although the Pacific island countries are also in the center of the "Asia-Pacific", the absolute influence and control of Australia and New Zealand in the South Pacific region make the concept of "Asia-Pacific" unable to serve the Pacific Island countries. In addition, due to the uneven level of economic development in the Pacific island countries, some countries are still classified as least developed countries and their economic influence is negligible compared to countries in other regions. Despite their geographical and spatial advantages, Pacific island countries do not receive much attention in APEC, which emphasizes economic significance. Of the 14 sovereign Pacific island countries, only Papua New Guinea is a full member, while other Pacific Island countries participate in APEC meetings and ministerial meetings as observers through the Pacific Islands Forum.

The geopolitical significance of "Asia-Pacific" has long been untapped, mainly because the US military presence in the Pacific and East Asia has never been challenged. China's rise has triggered a possible regional power shift in at least two ways: First, China's growing economic ties with East Asian countries, especially its economic and trade interdependence with America's military Allies, with which the United States is increasingly worried about Chinese influence. Second, although there is still a big gap between China and the United States in the construction of military projection capabilities, the continuous upgrading of Chinese weapons and equipment and China's deep blue military aspirations are also worrying the United States. The "Asia-Pacific rebalance" strategy proposed by Obama during his administration is a major choice made out of these concerns. The "Asia-Pacific rebalance" includes not only economic issues, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) to promote free trade, but also military issues such as increasing the deployment of warships in the Pacific region and holding the "United States-ASEAN Defense Forum." The "Asia-Pacific", which originally had only economic connotations, has more geopolitical significance. Under the grand strategy of "rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific," Clinton attended the 24th post-Pacific Islands Forum Dialogue in the Cook Islands in August 2012, but there was no substantive policy follow-up to this historic meeting. The Pacific island countries are basically at the edge of the "Asia-Pacific" perspective, which is due to their own weak national strength and backward economy, as well as their lack of strategic value and inability to exert influence in the game of great powers.

(2) The new South Pacific policy of the United States and Australia under the "Indo-Pacific" perspective

During the APEC Summit in November 2017, the first collective meeting of the leaders of the four countries, the United States, Japan, Australia and India, "invariably" made the "Indo-Pacific" a diplomatic priority and proposed the establishment of a "free, open, prosperous and inclusive Indo-Pacific region." This early, broad statement not only did not fully explain the "Indo-Pacific" concept of each country, but also did not explain too much about the status and role of Pacific island countries. From 2017 to 2019, more than two years, the United States, Japan, Australia and India issued official reports continuously, so that the parties' "Indo-Pacific" strategy continues to be clear, although the emphasis of the four countries is different, but the positioning of the Pacific island countries in the "Indo-Pacific" system is increasingly clear, especially the United States and Australia have regarded the Pacific Island countries as an inseparable strategic element of the "Indo-Pacific".

The National Security Strategy Report released by the United States in 2017, the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act adopted in 2018, and the Indo-Pacific Strategy Report released in 2019 have comprehensively expounded the strategic thinking of the United States on the Indo-Pacific from theory to policy. The United States believes that because Japan, Australia, and India have the same democratic systems as the United States, these four countries will be the main forces in building a "free and open Indo-Pacific." The United States will strengthen political alliances and partnerships in the region, and deepen new partnerships with other members of the region based on fairness and the rule of law. Economically, the United States will maintain free and open sea lanes, ensure unimpeded trade in the Indo-Pacific region, and insist on transparent infrastructure investment. The United States will maintain sufficient military forces in the Indo-Pacific region to ensure victory in future military confrontations.

For the Pacific Islands, the United States has for the first time identified the Pacific Islands as an important part of its "Indo-Pacific" strategy: "We will activate our engagement with the Pacific Islands to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific region, keep shipping lanes open, and enhance our status as island security partners." We are committed to maintaining our ongoing engagement with the Pacific Islands through ongoing recognition and renewal of partnerships." revitalizing is the key word of the U.S. Pacific Island strategy, which not only recognizes the past strategic neglect of Pacific Island countries by the United States, but also emphasizes the determination to increase engagement with Pacific Island countries in the future. The United States believes that its ties with the Pacific Islands can be traced back to World War II, and this history is an important reason why the United States attaches importance to developing relations with the island countries. In addition, the United States and Pacific Island nations share common goals in maintaining maritime security, combating illegal fishing and drug trafficking, and addressing climate change and natural disasters.

The United States' engagement with Pacific island countries under the "Indo-Pacific" strategy focuses on the following three aspects.

a. Bring into play the linkage role of regional powers Australia and New Zealand to exert influence on Pacific island countries together with the United States. As Australia and New Zealand have all-round ties with the Pacific island countries in politics, military, diplomacy and economy, and are also close Allies of the United States, relying on Australia and New Zealand to contact the Pacific Island countries can reduce strategic investment and maximize the strategic interests of the United States.

b. Increase security cooperation and enhance U.S. patrols in the South Pacific. First, the United States Coast Guard maintains bilateral patrols with 15 Pacific Island nations to conduct law enforcement operations against illegal catches and other violations. Second, it signed a cruise agreement with 11 Pacific island countries, allowing the US Coast Guard and US Navy ships to assert sovereignty on behalf of the island countries in their exclusive economic zones.

c. Strengthen Relations with Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands The three freely associated States have unique historical ties with the United States and are important manifestations of U.S. strategic interests in the South Pacific, and the United States will continue to provide financial support and military protection to continue the special relationship with the three freely associated States. On May 21, 2019, President Trump met simultaneously with the heads of state of Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia and the Marshall Islands at the White House, marking the first time in history that a U.S. president met with the heads of state of three freely associated countries at the same time. "The United States, Palau, the Marshall Islands, and the Federated States of Micronesia, as Pacific nations, have jointly reaffirmed their shared interest in a free, open, and prosperous Indo-Pacific region," the joint statement said. This statement once again reflects the special importance of free association countries to the US Indo-Pacific strategy.

Australia's absolute influence in the South Pacific has been unchallenged for quite some time and since 2013, Australia's strategic investment has been almost stagnant, except for maintaining the emphasis on the Pacific Island countries in government documents. Take aid as an example. In 2013, the Abbott government carried out institutional reform and merged the previously independent Australian aid agency into the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, which reduced the status of aid in Australian diplomacy to some extent. After rapid growth and a peak under the Howard, Rudd and Gillard governments, Australia's aid program contracted sharply from 2014, with the amount of aid experiencing a whopping 23.7 per cent decline under the Abbott and Turnbull governments. Aid is an important diplomatic tool for Australia to exert influence on island countries, although economic integration with Pacific Island countries is crucial to the economic prosperity of the South Pacific region at a time when overall aid is declining. The aid from Pacific island countries has maintained a relatively stable trend, but there is a great contrast with China's aid input to Pacific Island countries. In the face of the possible impact of China's influence on the regional order in the South Pacific, Australia has begun to rethink its foreign policy towards the Pacific island countries in both concept and action.

In 2017, with the release of the Foreign Policy White Paper that set the tone for the "Indo-Pacific" strategy, "Step Up" became the keyword of Australia's South Pacific policy. Australian Foreign Minister Payne made it clear that "the Pacific 'step up' is not a diplomatic option for Australia, but an inevitable choice." Australia will respond to regional challenges with greater resolve and engagement for the common benefit of Pacific Island countries. The Pacific "advance" mainly includes four aspects.

a. Strengthen economic cooperation and regional economic integration. The economic integration of Australia, New Zealand and Pacific Island countries is critical to the economic prosperity of the South Pacific region, given their general remoteness from major world markets, scarcity of land resources and low population. On the one hand, we need to implement the Pacific Closer Relations Agreement (PACER Plus) as soon as possible to provide an operational and transparent system of rules for investment, trade and commerce in the region. On the other hand, enhancing employee exchanges between Pacific Island countries and Australia through the new Pacific LabourScheme and the existing Seasonal Worker Program, which provide island workers with employment opportunities and the skills and certification needed by employers, Stimulate the economic vitality of the region.

b. Address security challenges. Pacific island countries are often unable to respond alone to non-traditional security threats such as transnational crime, natural disasters and infectious diseases. Australia will continue to improve cooperation and coordination with island States in defence police, intelligence, customs and legal matters, provide cruise ships to Pacific Island States through the Pacific Maritime Security Program, and fund aerial surveillance. Work together to combat illegal and irregular fishing and the smuggling of people, drugs and wildlife.

c. Strengthen personnel exchanges, education and training, and leadership building. With the support of the NewColombo Plan, more and more Australians are travelling to Pacific Island countries and Australia will continue to invest in community and people exchange. Education is of great significance to the economic development of Pacific Island countries Due to the backward economy and shortage of human resources, the South Pacific has been lacking enough professional education personnel and related facilities, Australia will provide more learning opportunities for island citizens in terms of education and training. Australia is also committed to the role of think tanks, social organisations and research institutions in nurturing the future of the island nation. Climate change, developing resilience and responding to natural disasters. Australia will provide a total of $300 million over four years to fund climate science research and data collection to help Pacific island nations cope with climate change and mitigate its negative impacts. Through multilateral financial institutions and the Green ClimateFund, Australia will also provide critical infrastructure for Pacific island countries to improve their resilience to natural disasters.

The Pacific "Step forward" is one of the highest-priority foreign policies in the 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper, marking the place of reflection and phased adjustment of Australia's South Pacific policy. The term "advanced" also clearly indicates that the previous policy on Pacific island countries cannot adapt to the objectives and requirements of the "Indo-Pacific" strategy, and Australia's interests in the South Pacific region must be guaranteed through increased investment and new measures, and the "advanced" of the Pacific Ocean further highlights the importance of the Pacific Island countries to Australia's "Indo-Pacific" strategy. Whether it is the "activation" policy of the United States or the "advanced" policy of Australia, the Pacific island countries under the Indo-Pacific vision are in the stage of being highly concerned, their strategic value has been highlighted, and their strategic status has been greatly improved.

II. Implementation and latest progress of the Indo-Pacific Strategy in the South Pacific

The US and Australia's repositioning of the Pacific islands through official reports is not just about documents, it is also deeply reflected in their policy actions. Japan and India already had a preliminary "Indo-Pacific" strategic framework before 2017, when "Indo-Pacific" became the common slogan of the United States, Japan, Australia and India, the strategic investment and strategic commitment of the four countries to the South Pacific region reached an unprecedented degree.

(1) Security diplomacy is the primary direction of the Indo-Pacific  strategy

Both the unilateral policy of the United States and the bilateral policy of the United States and Australia are reflected in the South Pacific region. In May 2018, the U.S. Pacific Command was renamed Indo-Pacific Command, and the White House National Security Council created a new position under the "Indo-Pacific" strategy, the Director of Oceania and Indo-Pacific Security, mainly responsible for security coordination in the Australian-New Zealand South Pacific region. In September 2018, U.S. UnderSecretary of the Navy Thomas D. Dee visited Vanuatu, becoming the highest-ranking U.S. military official to visit Vanuatu in nearly a decade, to discuss military cooperation with senior officials. He also stressed that cooperation with Pacific Island countries is to ensure "freedom of navigation, free trade and free development" in the Pacific region. In November 2018, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced new diplomatic posts in the Pacific island countries to highlight the importance of the region, and plans to build a naval base with Papua New Guinea on Manus Island to strengthen military cooperation and naval deployment between the two countries. During the 2018 APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence said that the United States would participate in the construction of a naval base on Manus Island, "working with Australia and Papua New Guinea to protect the national sovereignty and maritime rights of the Pacific Islands."

In March 2019, Matt Minn, the senior director for Asian affairs at the White House National Security Council, and AlexanderGray, the director for Oceania and Indo-Pacific security, visited Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands, as well as Australia, New Zealand and Japan, three key U.S. military Allies in the Pacific. Working with countries on security issues in the Indo-Pacific strategy. In April 2019, the U.S. military was in talks with the government of the Federated States of Micronesia to open new naval facilities and conduct military exercises aimed at reactivating some strategic bases in the Pacific region. In May of the same year, following Trump's historic meeting with the heads of the Republic of Palau, the Marshall Islands, and the Federated States of Micronesia, the joint statement of the four countries placed regional security at the forefront of the development of relations between the United States and the three freely associated countries. When U.S. Secretary of State MikePompeo visited the Federated States of Micronesia in August of the same year and met with the heads of state of the other two free associated States, Pompeo said, "I am here to reaffirm that the United States will help you preserve your sovereignty, your security, and your right to live in freedom and peace." Your little island is a great bastion of freedom. You share our aspirations for an open and free Indo-Pacific region." Pompeo became the highest-ranking U.S.

Japan has also made use of multilateral platforms with Pacific island countries to strengthen the importance of military security in the Indo-Pacific strategy. In May 2018, the summit declaration of the eighth Japan-Pacific Island Nations Summit took the unprecedented step of including sensitive security issues such as the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. "The leaders stressed the need to find a peaceful diplomatic solution, Dismantle all weapons of mass destruction, including biological and chemical weapons, ballistic missiles, and other related facilities, in a complete, verifiable and irreversible manner, "the declaration said, stressing the importance of a maritime order based on the rule of law and welcoming Abe's proposal for a" free and open Indo-Pacific." Through the summit, Japan won the support of Pacific island countries for its "Indo-Pacific" strategy.

In May 2019, under the promotion of the "Indo-Pacific" strategy, India and Papua New Guinea jointly announced that the third India-Pacific Island Countries Cooperation Forum would be held in Port Moresby, capital of Papua New Guinea, that year, and the forum had been stalled after two sessions in 2014 and 2015. The resumption of the forum is India's latest move to strengthen relations with Pacific island countries and implement the "Indo-Pacific" strategy. Strengthening diplomacy in the South Pacific is the beginning of "Operation East" for India. On November 12, 2014, at the 12th ASEAN-India Summit held in Myanmar, Di announced that India's "Turn East policy" was officially transformed into "Act East". Just a week later, on November 19, Modi traveled to Fiji, becoming the second Indian head of state to visit the Pacific island nation after Gandhi. The "Indo-Pacific" strategy has further strengthened the legitimacy of India to carry out diplomatic activities and increase its influence in the South Pacific region.

(2) Foreign aid is a key area in the implementation of the Indo-Pacific Strategy

Due to the backward development level of Pacific island countries and frequent natural disasters, foreign assistance has become an important way to promote social and economic development. Aid has become an extremely important diplomatic tool for the great powers inside and outside the region who wish to participate in and influence the affairs of the South Pacific region. In July 2018, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a speech at the US Chamber of Commerce that the US would invest $113 million in new technology, energy and infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific region. In November of the same year, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence announced in his APEC speech that the United States would provide $60 billion in infrastructure construction assistance to the Indo-Pacific region, and stressed the transparency and rules of economic cooperation.

According to the 2018 edition of Japan's Development Cooperation White Paper, Japan's total ODA in 2017 was 18.461.2 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.8% over the previous year, and in order to promote the Abe government's vision of a "free and open Indo-Pacific", Japan will support relevant countries to build maritime security capabilities and improve high-quality infrastructure through expanding ODA. Japan's development cooperation program and increasing aid funding are in line with the growing non-traditional security threats facing Pacific island countries. In October 2018, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono held talks with New Zealand Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister WinstonPeters and Defense Minister RonMark in Wellington, and agreed to provide assistance to island countries in the areas of high-quality infrastructure construction and maritime security to help these countries achieve financial health.

Australia, the region's largest aid donor, has stepped up its assistance to Pacific Island nations in the face of growing aid from other countries. In March 2018, the then Foreign Minister Bishop applied to the Joint Committee on Foreign Security and Trade for an inquiry on the strategic effects of Australia's assistance projects in the Indo-Pacific Region and its role in safeguarding regional interests, and collected a discussion report on the inquiry, and finally received 101 reports from think tanks and research institutions at home and abroad. Due to Australia's domestic political struggles and Turnbull's resignation, the inquiry was eventually abandoned, but the inquiry on aid in the Indo-Pacific region had a huge impact on Australia's South Pacific policy. In November, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced a massive aid package for Pacific island nations, the Australian Infrastructure Financing Facility for the Pacific (AIFFP) will provide $2 billion in grants and long-term loans for energy, transport, water and telecommunications projects. To take Australia's engagement with Pacific Island nations to a whole new level. In June 2019, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison made the Solomon Islands his first overseas visit after winning the general election. Foreign Minister Marise Payne said the prime minister's visit to the Solomon Islands was "an important step in strengthening the Government's 'progressive' Pacific policy". During Morrison's visit to the Solomon Islands, he proposed a $250 million aid package covering areas such as infrastructure and personnel training.

Based on the Indo-Pacific Strategy, countries not only have individual assistance programs for Pacific Island countries, but also have collective policy options. In July 2018, the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), the U.S. Overseas Private Investment Corporation (0PIC), and the Australian government announced a trilateral partnership at the Indo-Pacific Business Forum to strengthen infrastructure investment in the Indo-Pacific region. The first financing package under the trilateral framework is a liquefied natural gas development project in the Pacific island nation of Papua New Guinea. In April 2019, the joint team of the United States, Japan and Australia exchanged views with the PNG government, and the project is expected to reach at least $1 billion in financing, and the two sides also discussed the construction of power generation equipment and communications equipment.

In addition to financing infrastructure projects, the U.S.-Japan-Australia trilateral partnership also aims to contain China's Belt and Road initiative. In September 2018, JamesCaruso, the US Charge d 'affaires in Australia, noted that the US was working with Japan and Australia to develop a "Counter0fer" plan against Huawei's broadband network plans in Papua New Guinea, aimed at interfering with Chinese companies' network construction projects in Papua New Guinea. With the policy advancement of the "Indo-Pacific" strategy in the field of infrastructure, it will compete head-on with the "Belt and Road" Initiative focusing on infrastructure construction. 

III. The foundation and driving force of the Indo-Pacific strategy promoted by the United States, Japan, Australia and India in the South Pacific

"Indo-pacific" as a geopolitical concept, the Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia and the Pacific Ocean are the most important three components of the concept of "Indo-Pacific" mainly rely on the strategic investment of the United States, Japan, Australia and India in the above three regions. Compared with the other two regions, the close ties between the United States, Japan, Australia and India and the Pacific island countries in terms of historical origins, security diplomacy, economic and trade exchanges and natural environment have laid the foundation for the four countries to promote the "Indo-Pacific" strategy in the South Pacific.

Australia is a founding member of the Pacific Islands Forum and the largest economy in the South Pacific with strong influence on Pacific Island nations. Take Papua New Guinea, the country with the largest population and the strongest economy, as an example. From 1946 to 1975, Australia was entrusted by the United Nations to administer Papua New Guinea, which exerted extensive influence on its political system, economic development and foreign trade. Papua New Guinea has been a major recipient of Australian aid for decades, and Australia still maintains its political and economic influence in Papua New Guinea through the provision of advisers and consultations. Papua New Guinea signed a free trade agreement with Australia in its second year of independence, and the two sides have also signed a series of bilateral cooperation agreements, including the Forest Partnership Agreement, the Joint Declaration on Partnership and the Economic Cooperation Agreement. Australia is Papua New Guinea's largest aid donor, largest trading partner and largest investment partner, and the leaders of the two countries have exchanged frequent visits.

Australia is firmly bound to the Pacific island countries through various bilateral agreements and relationship networks, strengthening the dependence of the island countries on Australia in the system, and leading the order of the South Pacific region. Together with New Zealand, Australia has facilitated the signing of the Pacific Close Economic Relations Agreement (PACER) and the Pacific Islands Free Trade Agreement (PICTA) on the South Pacific Free Trade and Economic Cooperation Arrangement, and Australia has played a leading role in the process of regional economic integration. The Australian Government's 2003 report fully explains Australia's relationship and positioning with the Pacific Island countries: "History has closely linked Australia to the island countries and their peoples, and at the time of their independence Australia has helped shape their economic foundations, the distribution of power between central and local governments, and their governance philosophies. In some cases, we use our institutions and ideas to support their constitutions, legislatures, public services, legal systems, and policing forces. "Australia is a major source of imports and investment in the region, a dominant donor and a core partner in security and defence." Due to the close alliance between the United States, Australia and New Zealand, the United States is very supportive of Australia and New Zealand to lead the South Pacific regional affairs, Australia in the economic, military and diplomatic huge advantages, so that it has become a veritable deputy sheriff of the Pacific.

The United States also has its own "sphere of influence" in the South Pacific. The Federated States of Micronesia, the Marshall Islands, and the Republic of Palau were entrusted by the United States for a long time before independence, and after independence, the United States signed an "Agreement of Free Association" with the United States. The United States pledged to provide more than $130 million in direct aid to the Federated States of Micronesia through a trust fund until 2023. $70 million in direct assistance to the Marshall Islands. At the end of 2011, the United States Trust Fund for Palau amounted to $147 million, making it a major donor to the three countries. In addition to economic relations, the agreement obliges the United States to provide security guarantees for the three countries, to allow nationals of freely associated countries to travel to the United States for work, and so on. These comprehensive and complex bilateral agreements give the United States great privileges in the South Pacific.

As an island country, Japan usually emphasizes the geographical similarities and common challenges it faces with Pacific island countries, linking the identity of island countries with the development of bilateral and multilateral relations. Japan and Pacific island countries share common experience and understanding in addressing climate change, earthquakes, tsunamis and other natural disasters. As early as the 1990s, when most Pacific island countries had just achieved national independence and were in urgent need of funds for economic and social development, Japan became the first country outside the region to provide assistance. On the one hand, Japan has increased its assistance to Pacific Island countries, and on the other hand, it has rapidly expanded its influence in the South Pacific region by taking Pacific Island countries as important product markets and sources of raw materials.

At the four Japan-Pacific Island Leaders' Summits from 2009 to 2018, disaster reduction, sustainable development and environmental protection have been the themes discussed at the summits. The Japanese government attaches great importance to its huge advantages in environmental protection, from the "Earth Cooling Promotion Program" to the "Oceania Waste Regional Strategy (2010-2015)". Japan continues to help Pacific Island countries meet these challenges through assistance and personnel training. Since the exclusive economic zones of the Pacific Island countries are the main source of supplies of Japanese skipito and tuna, Japan has a common interest in combating illegal fishing with the Pacific Island countries. Japan has made every effort to help the Pacific Island countries improve their maritime law enforcement capabilities by providing training for cruise ships and Marine security personnel. Common interests and cooperation in the maritime field have strengthened the natural ties between Japan and Pacific island countries, and won great support for Japan's "Indo-Pacific" strategy in the South Pacific.

The natural connection between India and Fiji is an important basis for India to carry out diplomatic activities in the South Pacific. India and Fiji became colonies successively in the 19th century. In order to plant sugar cane and produce sugar on a large scale, Britain sent a large number of Indians as laborers to the sugar cane fields in Fiji. After Fiji's national independence, a considerable number of Indians took root in Fiji and became an important local ethnic group. Today, Fiji's total population is about 800,000, with 300,000 people of Indian origin, accounting for nearly 40%. People of Indian descent have made significant contributions to the economic and social development of the region. However, India has for a long time failed to take advantage of its natural links with Fiji and Fiji's position as a transport hub in the South Pacific, and so far only Fiji and Papua New Guinea among the 14 independent Pacific island states have established a High Commission to manage foreign affairs. India is desperate to change its thin influence in the South Pacific. Because the South Pacific is so attractive to India to realize its dream of becoming a great power and maritime power, the "Indo-Pacific" strategy has become an opportunity for India to conduct diplomacy in the South Pacific.

IV. The prospect analysis of the Pacific Island offensive of the "Indo-Pacific" strategy

Since 2018, the United States, Japan, Australia and India have launched a transit "Indo-Pacific" offensive in the South Pacific. These strategic "Belt and Road" initiatives emphasize common consultation, and a considerable part of the measures take the "Belt and Road" initiative as a hypothetical enemy. We support island countries in raising the "voice of the Pacific" and advancing the "Blue Pacific" initiative, attach importance to and understand the special concerns of Pacific island countries on climate change, and make common development and South-South cooperation the main theme of bilateral and multilateral relations. The "Indo-Pacific" strategy is full of one-way policy thinking. Both the United States and Australia unilaterally formulate South Pacific policies based on their own national interests, placing their own interests above the interests of Pacific island countries. In addition, because the concerns and interests of the United States, Japan, Australia and India are very different, the four countries' Indo-Pacific strategy is also difficult to form a synergy. Whether the "Indo-Pacific" strategy in the Pacific island countries can achieve the desired effect and whether it can be sustained ultimately depends on the Pacific island countries' positioning of themselves and their views on the "Indo-Pacific" strategy.

(1) The United States is the most important country among the four countries in the Indo-Pacific, but Trump's "America first" principle poses constraints to his Indo-Pacific strategy

Promoting the "Indo-Pacific" strategy requires huge long-term political, economic, and military investments, but Trump's policy preferences are more focused on short-term gains. At present, the United States has paid full attention to the Pacific island countries in terms of policy tone, institutional design and strategic planning, and it remains to be seen whether this "activation" strategy can be sustained in the future and whether it can be translated into actual investment. In addition, the prospects for cooperation between the United States, Japan, Australia and India are not optimistic. After Trump was elected president, he not only failed to uphold the rules-based multilateral mechanism, but launched trade wars against many trading partners, including Japan and India, and frequently "withdrew from the group" : on January 23, 2017, the United States announced its withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement; On June 1, 2017, the United States announced its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on global climate change. On October 12, 2017, the United States withdrew from UNESCO; On June 19, 2018, the United States withdrew from the United Nations Human Rights Council. The friction of the four countries at the bilateral level and Trump's negative attitude in the multilateral field make the cooperation between the United States, Japan, Australia and India under the "Indo-Pacific" framework full of uncertainties. If the United States, Japan, Australia and India operate separately in the South Pacific region in the future and lack joint action, then the "Indo-Pacific" as a multilateral framework will lose its important practical significance.

(2) The "Pacific diplomacy" shows the diplomatic independence of the Pacific island countries. They have enough diplomatic space to choose whether to accept the "Indo-Pacific" strategy

After decades of economic and social development, the Pacific island countries are undergoing major changes in two aspects: On the one hand, the people of the Pacific island countries have a clearer understanding of their national interests and are increasingly clear about their own development goals and directions. Due to their special geographical location and characteristics, Pacific island countries have encountered different development problems from most other countries. In recent years, all countries have formulated short-term development plans or long-term development strategies suited to their own national conditions. Pacific Island countries generally agree that climate change is the single biggest existential threat to their lives, and building the bluepacific is a major platform to address the challenge of climate change. On the other hand, "pacific diplomacy" has become an important way for Pacific island countries to express their views and safeguard their interests. "Pacific Diplomacy" refers to the diplomatic model of Pacific Island countries participating as a whole in global forums and multilateral frameworks, expressing their interests through one voice and joint efforts in areas such as trade, sustainable development, climate change, nuclear issues, decolonization, and fisheries, and participating together in global governance through a regionalist approach. Most of the Pacific island countries are backward in economic development and lack a voice in the international community. Only by joining forces can they effectively make their voices heard and be valued by the international community.

In recent years, the emergence of Pacific island countries such as Fiji and Papua New Guinea in the field of global governance has proved the important role of "Pacific diplomacy". In November 2017, at the 23rd session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Fiji, as the chair of the Conference, released the report "Climate Vulnerability Assessment: Enhancing Fiji's Climate Resilience", which was jointly completed with the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, reflecting Fiji's outstanding contribution in the field of climate change governance. In November 2018, Papua New Guinea successfully hosted the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting, a major breakthrough in Papua New Guinea's diplomatic history and an important milestone in the Pacific island nation's entry into the international community. "Pacific diplomacy" has made the absolute influence of Western countries, especially traditional donor countries, on Pacific island countries no longer exist, and Pacific Island countries have increasingly expanded the scope of foreign exchanges in politics and economy, continuously improved their status in the field of global governance, and have more autonomy and choices in the face of external strategic pressure. For the Indo-Pacific strategy, Pacific island countries will not only play a passive role, but will maximize their subjective initiative.

(3) The future policy focus and implementation of the Indo-Pacific Strategy will determine its acceptance in the Pacific Island countries

The policy options of the United States, Japan, Australia and India in the South Pacific region span a wide range, involving many issues such as economy, security, diplomacy, environment and so on. From the current perspective, security issues are relatively priority policy options. However, for Pacific island countries, the most significant security threat in the South Pacific region is not military threat, but the threat to sustainable development brought by the destruction of Marine resources and the Marine environment. When the United States and Australia announced the construction of a military base on Manus Island in Papua New Guinea, the local government expressed strong dissatisfaction with such a unilateral act without consulting the public and ignoring the local development rights. "Indo-pacific" as a geopolitical concept, Japan, the United States, Australia and India are concerned about the primary issue of military security and military cooperation rather than development issues. Therefore, although some countries have responded to the concerns of Pacific island countries, such as Marine protection and illegal fishing, it remains to be seen how specific response measures will help island people solve the real problems.

(4) Pacific island countries need to make their own judgments and choices in the strategic competition among major powers

From the 1990s, when Pacific island countries put forward the "look North" strategy to start a major breakthrough in diplomacy, to the 21st century, when they formed the "Pacific diplomacy" and issued a common voice in the international arena, Pacific island countries, as small countries, have been seeking their own development space in the international order dominated by major powers. The Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to build a global development platform and a "community with a shared future for mankind", has yielded fruitful results after five years of development around the world. The relations between China and Pacific island countries have achieved qualitative change in the process of jointly building the Belt and Road, becoming a new model of South-South cooperation. At the same time, the "Indo-Pacific" strategy, which aims at building a "free and open Indo-Pacific", frequently forces the South Pacific. Although its policy space and effect are not yet clear, it intensifies the strategic competition in the South Pacific. The international situation in the region is becoming increasingly complex, from intra-regional powers to non-regional powers, from traditional donors to emerging donors. All the countries involved in the South Pacific affairs have their own ways of cooperation, behavior characteristics and policy goals. For the Pacific island countries seeking to enhance their international influence and expand their economic development space, which path to choose in foreign policy will be a major test for the people of the Pacific island countries in the new era.

In the context of the great power game, the strategic importance of Pacific island countries is increasing, and the "Indo-Pacific" strategy and China's "Belt and Road" initiative constitute substantial competition in the South Pacific region. In order to hedge the impact of the "Belt and Road", the "Indo-Pacific" strategy continues to make efforts in security diplomacy, economic assistance and other aspects, trying to extend the long-term control of the South Pacific regional order, which runs counter to the aspirations of Pacific island countries to expect independent development. On the contrary, the Belt and Road Initiative has made great contributions to addressing the weak infrastructure of Pacific island countries, improving people's livelihood and enhancing the capacity of recipient countries for independent development. In September 2019, Solomon Islands and Kiribati established diplomatic ties with China, which shows that the economic development cooperation between China and Pacific island countries is playing a huge demonstration effect, attracting more Pacific island countries to participate in the construction of the Belt and Road. In the face of the impact of the "Indo-Pacific" strategy, China should maintain strategic focus, continue to carry out South-South cooperation with Pacific island countries, and promote the formation of a new pattern of mutual benefit and win-win results. (Author: Qin Sheng, Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy at Chinese Academy of Social Science)