From hedging to choosing sides: Ukraine's strategic orientation and the dilemma of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine

Abstract: Since the Zelensky government came to power, it has continued the "one-sided" pro-Western diplomatic strategy during the Poroshenko period, continued to promote political and economic integration with the European Union, strengthened security cooperation with NATO, and continued to confront Russia. To this end, the Zelensky government made comprehensive use of a variety of diplomatic methods and strategies to keep close relations with the West, attached great importance to public diplomacy, took the initiative to strengthen interaction and communication with the Western society, and made frequent comments on international organizations, traditional media and Internet social media platforms to win the support of the Western society for Ukraine. Zelensky's pro-Western diplomacy has secured a flood of aid for Ukraine, but it has also had a series of negative consequences for Ukraine. First, Zelensky's diplomacy in pursuit of an alliance with the West upset the balance of power between Russia and the West in Ukraine, causing the geopolitical competition to escalate into a serious geopolitical crisis. Zelensky's accelerated push to join NATO and the European Union has increased Russia's sense of insecurity, prompting Putin to take preventive action in the face of an early showdown with the West. Second, the role of pro-Western diplomacy has certain limitations. The West and Ukraine are not in a formal alliance. In order to avoid being burned, the West chose not to directly intervene in the crisis and only provided limited assistance, which could not meet the needs of Ukraine to win the war, resulting in the conflict becoming a protracted war and a war of attrition, and the personnel and property losses in Ukraine continued to expand. At the same time, the "one-sided" pro-Western diplomacy has weakened the independence of Ukraine's diplomacy and increased the difficulty of diplomatic peace talks. The peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are stalled by the West, which leads Ukraine to be Mired in geopolitical crisis and unable to extricate itself.

The conflict in Donbass, which began in 2014, escalated into a Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, with no end in sight. At present, Ukraine is under a wartime state of emergency, according to Ukrainian law can not hold a new presidential election, so Zelensky had to "extend the service." The geopolitical crisis that has lasted for many years is closely related to Ukraine's foreign strategic orientation. In the context of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Zelensky government had to adjust its diplomatic goals, comprehensively use a variety of diplomatic strategies, improve the strategic relationship with the United States, the European Union and NATO, and counter Russia's diplomatic and security pressure.

From the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis to the overall escalation, Ukraine not only completely abandoned the hedging strategy to the "one-sided" pro-Western diplomatic strategy, but also formally proposed the diplomatic goal of joining the EU and NATO. In the National Security Strategy, the National Foreign Strategy and other documents, the Zelensky government clearly stated that it would become a full member of the European Union and NATO. Similarly, the diplomatic strategy of turning to the West has also weakened the independence of Ukraine's diplomacy to a certain extent, resulting in the control of the United States and other western powers on the issue of Russian-Ukrainian peace talks.

I. Literature review

International relations scholars do not pay much attention to Ukraine's foreign strategy. On the one hand, European scholars appreciate the Zelensky government's pro-Western diplomacy, on the other hand, they are not optimistic about the prospect of peaceful settlement of the differences between Russia and Ukraine.

Western scholars pay more attention to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the relations between major powers, the global order and European security. Western scholars agree with Zelensky's pro-Western foreign policy, but there is widespread concern about Ukraine's security, the prospect of joining the European Union and integrating with the West. Taras Kuzio, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, made a pessimistic prediction about Zelensky's diplomacy as early as 2019, believing that Zelensky could not break the deadlock between Russia and Ukraine due to domestic politics, and the relationship between the two sides may continue to deteriorate. Norwegian scholars believe that the Russian Umminsk agreement is doomed to failure, and the differences between the two sides on security and territorial issues cannot be bridged. According to Carnegie Center scholar Gwendolyn Sasse, Zelensky's diplomacy faces three challenges: economic reconstruction, winning the war, and joining the European Union. Among them, security is the key factor, and without winning the peace, other goals cannot be achieved.

Russian scholars are concerned about the influence of Ukrainian nationalism on the diplomacy of the Zelensky government and the constraints imposed by the West on Ukraine's diplomatic autonomy. Russian scholars have studied Zelensky's diplomacy a lot, and generally believe that Ukrainian nationalism has a greater impact on Zelensky's diplomacy, blaming the deterioration of Russia-Ukraine relations on Ukrainian ultra-nationalism. Some Russian scholars believe that the deterioration of Russia-Ukraine relations is the result of instigation and provocation by Western powers and NATO, and Ukraine's diplomacy lacks autonomy and has become a tool for the West to contain Russia. After analyzing the foreign policy of Zelensky and Poroshenko, Russian scholar Semenov believes that the position of the two governments in the Donbass peace talks has not changed much, and Zelensky has tried to modify the Minsk agreement through a variety of methods.

Chinese scholars mainly focus on the Ukraine policies of major powers and the impact of the Ukraine crisis on the global order and relations between major powers, but pay little attention to Ukraine's diplomacy since 2014.

This paper focuses on the background of Ukraine's foreign strategic adjustment and the motivation of its overall shift to the West, analyzes the geostrategic logic of Zelensky's diplomacy, and systematically combs the influence of Ukraine's diplomatic strategic orientation on the trend of Russia-Ukraine conflict.

2. Formation of Ukraine's foreign strategic orientation

The 2014 Crimean crisis was a watershed in Ukraine's diplomacy, which not only led to a serious domestic political crisis in Ukraine, but also triggered a series of diplomatic turns and security crises. Russia took the opportunity to incorporate Crimea into its territory and support a high degree of autonomy for the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. Serious territorial disputes and regional separatist movements have led Ukraine to completely abandon the hedging strategy, fully turn to the West in diplomacy and security, implement a "one-sided" pro-Western foreign policy, and write membership in the EU and NATO as a national strategy in the constitution. Since taking office, Zelensky has continued the pro-Western diplomatic strategy since the Ukraine crisis, and made joining the EU and NATO one of the important goals of Ukraine's foreign policy. In the documents approved by the Zelensky government, such as the National Security Strategy of Ukraine, the Military Security Strategy of Ukraine, the Foreign Policy Strategy of Ukraine, the Economic Security Strategy of Ukraine and the Information Security Strategy of Ukraine, accession to the EU and NATO occupy a very important position. A comprehensive turn to the West is not only seen as an important means to maintain national security in Ukraine, an important strategic choice to resist Russian security pressure, but also as a prerequisite for political democratization and economic modernization.

(1) Background of Ukraine's diplomatic strategy adjustment

Ukraine's foreign policy of seeking alliance with the West was not achieved overnight, but gradually formed in the diplomatic practice of changing objective circumstances. During his presidential campaign, Zelensky repeatedly promised to continue a pro-Western foreign policy and continue to seek membership in the European Union and NATO, but offered no specific timetable for when that might happen. In April 2019, Zelensky said in a public debate with Poroshenko: "Integration into the Western world presuppositions the readiness of Ukrainian society and is confirmed by a referendum." In his presidential inauguration speech in May 2019, Zelensky stressed again that "Ukraine's course towards Europe and NATO is chosen by the citizens themselves, and the task of the president is to create conditions for people to get what they want." He pointed out that the country would only join the international community (i.e., the European Union and NATO) if approved by a referendum. Initially, Zelensky only continued the Poroshenko government's basic tone of "practical cooperation" with the EU and NATO, and did not propose a specific goal of EU and NATO membership. Poroshenko is well aware that Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO is difficult to overcome in the short term, so he has not proposed a timetable for joining the EU and NATO. The 2015 National Security Strategy of Ukraine of the Poroshenko government only lists "ensuring Ukraine's integration into the European Union and creating conditions for joining NATO" as one of the main objectives of the national security strategy. The National Security Strategy of Ukraine, approved by Zelensky in 2020, only lists "the development of strategic relations with key foreign partners, mainly practical cooperation with the EU, NATO and its member states, and the United States" as one of the main principles of national security.

After entering 2021, Ukraine's diplomacy began to change, the Zelensky government will join the EU and NATO as a foreign strategic goal, hoping to formally join the Western military political and economic alliance. Zelensky is no longer satisfied with practical cooperation with NATO and the European Union, but instead proposes full membership. This policy began to go beyond his predecessor, Petro Poroshenko, upgrading the foreign policy objective of the Poroshenko government from "strengthening cooperation with NATO and the EU" to "obtaining full membership in the EU and NATO." In March 2021, Zelensky approved a revised version of the Military Security Strategy of Ukraine, formally stating that the main objective of the military security Strategy of Ukraine is to "prepare in advance and comprehensively upgrade the defense capabilities of Ukraine in accordance with the principles of deterrence, stability and interaction in order to ensure the military security, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country." He also proposed "promoting Ukraine's integration into the Euro-Atlantic security space and NATO membership." In August 2021, Zelensky clearly stated in the Foreign Policy Strategy of Ukraine that the main objectives of Ukraine's foreign policy are: to obtain full membership of the EU and NATO as the basic line of foreign policy; The priority is to confront Russia, ensure Ukraine's independence and national sovereignty, and restore its territorial integrity; Promote Ukrainian exports and attract foreign investment, protect the rights and interests of Ukrainian citizens abroad, and build a positive image of the country in the world.

(2) The motivation of Zelensky's adjustment of diplomatic strategy

The factors that have prompted Zelensky to intensify Ukraine's pro-Western foreign policy range from national security and domestic politics to great-power competition.

First, the shift to a "one-sided" pro-Western diplomacy has much to do with national security pressures on Ukraine. The conflict in Donbass and the question of Crimea have always been major issues concerning the territorial integrity and national security of Ukraine. Since 2014, Ukraine has seen Russia as the biggest threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Due to Russia's relatively tough position on resolving the conflict in Donbass, it insists that Ukraine implement the Minsk Agreement, amend the Ukrainian constitution in accordance with the "Steinmeier plan", grant the Donbass region a special status of local autonomy, and take the implementation of the "Steinmeier plan" as a precondition for resuming peace talks with the Zelensky government. As a result, Ukraine has turned its focus on resolving national security and territorial issues to NATO, hoping to ease diplomatic and security pressure from Russia by joining NATO. In the 2021 edition of the National Military Security Strategy, Zelensky's government explicitly stated: "Russia is waging a hybrid war against Ukraine... Temporarily occupy the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, Donetsk and Luhansk regions." Russia's aggressive foreign and military policy threatens the national security of Ukraine and other countries in the Baltic and Black Sea regions, could lead to a further escalation of armed strikes against Ukraine and trigger an international armed conflict in Europe.

Second, the intensification of "one-sided" pro-Western diplomacy is directly related to the wave of Ukrainian nationalism. After the 2014 Crimean crisis, nationalism became the mainstream public opinion in Ukraine, and people generally opposed any concessions made by the government to Russia on sovereignty and territorial issues, and large-scale violent protests were held on several occasions. Since the Donbass issue involves the core national interests of Ukraine, there is huge political resistance for the Ukrainian government to implement the Minsk agreement. Ukraine is a young, multi-ethnic country with separatist regions, not only the Donbas region in the east, but also the TranBarcarian oblast near Hungary in the west, and Ukrainian society is deeply concerned that granting autonomy to the Donbas region could trigger a full breakup of the country. In October 2019, when the media reported that the Zelensky government was ready to agree to grant special status to the Donbass region in accordance with the "Steinmeier model", large-scale anti-government protests broke out again in many parts of Ukraine. As a result of the actions of domestic nationalist forces, Zelensky's attempts to detente Russia-Ukraine relations from within ultimately failed, and he turned to a more active pro-Western diplomacy. After the complete failure of Zelensky's detente with Russia, the armed conflict in the Donbass region resumed in early 2021. Zelensky's diplomacy is more pro-Western, striving to become a member of the European Union and NATO, in order to win the West to increase the efforts of persuasion diplomacy to Russia, through the EU and NATO to break the deadlock in Russian-Ukrainian peace talks.

Finally, Biden's realigning of US foreign policy is an objective factor in Ukraine's strengthening of its pro-Western diplomacy. Since its independence, Ukraine has been hoping to integrate into the Western world, but the EU and NATO are relatively indifferent, and the level of cooperation between Ukraine and the West largely depends on the attitude and stance of the United States. In January 2021, after Biden took office, US diplomacy began to return to the establishment position, strengthening alliance diplomacy and values diplomacy. The Biden administration changed the Trump administration's negative stance on Ukraine policy, and soon after taking office, it sent Secretary of State Blinken to visit Ukraine and actively intervened in Ukraine affairs. The shift in Biden's diplomacy has allowed Zelensky's government to move more aggressively toward a foreign policy that seeks alliances with the West. The Zelensky government not only issued a series of policy documents, "striving for the full membership of NATO and the European Union" as a diplomatic goal, but also closely followed the Western countries led by the United States in foreign and security policy, and joined the joint sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union on Russia for many times. In March 2021, Ukraine sanctioned a number of Russian financial institutions, media and officials for threatening national security. In October, the Zelensky government expanded sanctions against Russia on the grounds of the poisoning case of Russian opposition figure Navalny.

(3) The formation of Ukraine's "one-sided" pro-Western diplomatic turn

Zelensky turned to seeking membership in NATO and the European Union as a way to achieve security, economic, and values-bound interests with the West. Since the 2014 Ukraine crisis, Ukraine and the West have signed a series of documents and treaties to build a close strategic partnership. The West, led by the United States, supports Ukraine's desire to join NATO and the European Union, and supports Ukraine's demand for territorial integrity, sovereignty and security. In 2014, Ukraine signed the Association Agreement with the EU, which not only achieves deep economic integration with the EU, but also follows the EU in political, judicial, foreign and security policy.

In 2020, Ukraine became the sixth "Enhanced Opportunity Partner" of NATO. NATO's "Opportunity Enhancement Program" mainly includes four aspects of cooperation: (1) NATO-ization of military standards, extending the standards applicable to full NATO members to "partner countries", requiring "partner countries" to use uniform NATO military operation procedures and military equipment, and NATO also gives these countries similar status in NATO tactical, operational and strategic operations; (2) Deeper military cooperation. The "partner countries" will have access to deeper cooperation and dialogue with NATO, and NATO will provide more military and technical support to these countries, providing more opportunities for deeper participation in NATO joint military operations; (3) A more stable security cooperation mechanism. NATO will establish a regular security consultation mechanism with "partner countries" to conduct high-level political consultations on security issues of common concern. NATO will also hold regular joint military exercises and military visits with these countries. NATO gives "partners" access to information sharing similar to that of member states. In the process of regional security crisis management, NATO will be more closely linked to "partner countries"; (4) Multi-level cooperation platform. After the NATO summit in Wales, NATO and "partner countries" have established a multi-level platform for mutual cooperation, including various cooperation committees, working groups and expert groups, covering topics such as command and control systems, education and training, exercises, logistics and so on. Any NATO committee or agency can organize meetings with the participation of "partner countries", such as North Atlantic Council meetings, military committee meetings, etc. In short, after obtaining NATO's "enhanced partner" status, Ukraine can almost fully share NATO's military resources in many aspects such as information intelligence, military exercises, regional intervention and training logistics, in addition to the protection of collective defense clauses possessed by full NATO members, which is almost equivalent to having NATO membership status.

After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the United States, the European Union and NATO established a fixed mechanism to support Ukraine, promising long-term economic and military assistance. The United States has brought together some 50 countries to establish the "Ukraine Defense Contact Group Meeting," a long-standing mechanism for providing military assistance to Ukraine, which has provided more than $98 billion in security assistance to Ukraine through June 2024. In 2023, NATO and Ukraine established the NATO-Ukraine Council, which further strengthened and enhanced the cooperation between Ukraine and NATO. In June 2024, the NATO summit announced the establishment of a long-term assistance mechanism for Ukraine, pledging to provide 40 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine per year.

3.The practice, approach and characteristics of Ukraine's "one-sided" pro-Western diplomacy

(1) The concrete practice of the Zelensky government's pro-Western diplomacy

After the Ukraine crisis in 2014, in order to cope with the security pressure from Russia, Ukraine gave up the hedging strategy pursued since independence, chose the "one-sided" pro-Western side strategy, and wrote the accession to the EU and NATO as the national strategic goal in the constitution.

a. Strengthen political, economic and diplomatic integration with the EU

Europe has always been one of Ukraine's diplomatic priorities, not only because the EU is Ukraine's most important economic partner, but also because EU countries play an integral role in Ukraine's governance and economic modernization, as a hedge against dependence on Russia. Ukraine has always hoped to join the EU, taking "European integration" as an important means to achieve political democratization and economic modernization, and binding its interests with Europe economically, politically and diplomatically. In March 2014, shortly after the Ukraine crisis, the interim Government of Ukraine and the EU signed the Agreement on the Status of Association of the EU, which legally established the integration process between Ukraine and the EU. Under the EU Association Agreement, the EU not only exempted most Ukrainian products from import duties, but also committed to providing annual development aid and loans to help Ukraine reform its judicial, political and social policies in line with EU standards.

Before the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the EU was cool to Ukraine's request for membership, believing that Ukraine still had a lot of work to do before joining the EU, and demanded that Ukraine effectively implement the political and judicial reforms stipulated in the association status agreement with the EU. Since taking office, Zelensky has frequently met with European leaders, including the European Commission, France and Germany, and actively responded to the EU's demands for political, judicial and security reforms. Starting in 2019, Zelensky implemented a series of anti-corruption, security and judicial reforms. At the request of the European Union, Zelenskiy's government and the People's Servants Party pushed through parliament to amend the constitution, remove parliamentarians' immunity, and introduce an anti-oligarchy law to limit the oligarchs 'political influence. The process of Ukraine's accession to the EU has been significantly accelerated.

After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the EU has also been obviously active on the issue of Ukraine's accession, using the accession as a tool to promote the reform of Ukraine's national governance, and has released a signal of support in security, diplomacy and economy. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the stability of every country on the continent affects the EU. "If our coalition does not get closer to the candidates fast enough, other countries will pick up the slack," she said. German Foreign Minister Berberk said that if the EU does not continue to expand, the entire continent will become more vulnerable. On February 28, 2022, shortly after the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Zelensky government quickly formally signed the application to join the EU, asking the EU to start the special accession procedure, grant Ukraine the qualification of the EU action plan, and start the accession negotiation process. On June 23, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, announced the approval of Ukraine and Moldova as candidates for EU membership, and Georgia as a potential candidate. The European Commission put forward seven conditions in its proposal to grant Ukraine EU candidate status, requiring Ukraine to carry out a series of reforms in political, financial and judicial fields, among which the judicial requirements are the most extensive, requiring Ukraine to carry out constitutional court reform, complete the reform of the Supreme Judicial Council and the Supreme Professional Council of Judges, and continue to fight corruption. On September 26, 2023, Prime Minister Shmegar said that Ukraine has fully implemented all reform recommendations made by the European Commission. On December 14, the European Union announced the formal launch of accession talks with Ukraine. On June 13, 2024, representatives of the 27 EU member states "agreed in principle" to start accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova on June 25.

b. Actively enhance the strategic partnership with the United States to win aid, but avoid getting involved in the internal affairs of the United States

As the only superpower in the world after the Cold War, the United States has always been one of Ukraine's diplomatic priorities, but also Ukraine's leverage against Russian influence. After taking office, Zelensky seized the favorable opportunity of the adjustment of the US Democratic Party's policy toward Russia and quickly upgraded the strategic relationship with the United States. In September 2021, Ukraine and the United States signed a new declaration on strategic cooperation and an agreement on the basic Principles of the Strategic Defense partnership, which marked a new stage of strategic cooperation between Ukraine and the United States.

After the outbreak of the Crimean crisis in 2014, Ukraine increasingly valued the role of the United States in safeguarding its national security. Since the impasse of the "Normandy Quartet" led by France and Germany, Ukraine's expectations of inviting the United States to intervene have gradually increased. Enhancing strategic mutual trust with the United States has always been one of the important directions of Ukraine's diplomacy. The Zelensky government continued the policy of seeking "direct consequences" for the United States during the Poroshenko period, was very cautious in handling the US judicial investigation involving Ukraine, and used the US domestic political agenda to open the deadlock of direct dialogue with the White House. In August 2019, US intelligence agents accused President Trump of "influence-peddling" and accused Trump of using military aid as a bargaining chip to ask the Zelensky government to investigate Democratic candidate Joe Biden and his son. The Zelensky administration has been particularly cautious in its investigation of the Bidens, taking a cautious approach to avoid being drawn directly into the domestic partisan dispute. Zelensky said publicly that he seeks to maintain good relations with the United States, but hopes that Ukraine and its citizens will avoid being involved in Washington's internal affairs.

Zelensky's policy of circumventing American partisanship won him favor among Democrats, prompting Biden to break a taboo against direct involvement in Ukraine. In January 2021, after Biden entered the White House, US-Russia relations and US-Ukraine relations showed a scene of "ice and fire". Biden publicly declared Putin a "killer" and considered Russia a real threat to the United States. The relationship between Ukraine and the United States is rapidly heating up, President Biden changed the indifferent attitude to Ukraine during the Trump period, soon after taking office sent Secretary of State Blinken to visit Ukraine, while increasing military aid and diplomatic support to Ukraine, only in 2021, the United States allocated 650 million dollars to Kiev. In August 2021, Zelensky was invited to visit the United States, and the two sides signed the Strategic Defense Framework Agreement, which also confirmed that the United States will continue to support Ukraine's membership in NATO and support Ukraine's security capabilities. Christina Kvien, the US charge d 'affaires in Ukraine at the time, said: "If Russia takes unacceptable actions against Ukraine, we will also provide additional equipment and weapons to Ukraine." During this period, the relationship between the United States and Ukraine achieved a strategic breakthrough. In August 2021, the two countries signed the Framework Agreement on Cooperation in the Research and Development of Weapons and Military Technical Equipment and the Agreement on the Basic Principles of the Strategic Defense Partnership to expand cooperation in the areas of Black Sea defense, cyber security and reconnaissance intelligence exchange. In November of the same year, the two countries signed a new version of the U.S.-Ukraine Charter of Strategic Partnership, pledging to expand strategic cooperation between the two countries in the fields of politics, security, defense, development, economy, energy, education and culture. After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States became the leader of Western aid to Ukraine. Zelensky chose the United States on his first foreign visit after the conflict, and the support of the United States has become a key factor in ensuring Ukraine's national security. On May 9, 2022, the Biden administration approved the approximately $40 billion Lend-Lease Support for Ukraine Act. In April 2024, the United States approved another $60.8 billion aid bill for Ukraine. On June 13, 2024, the United States and Ukraine signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement, formally establishing the institutional framework for long-term U.S. assistance to Ukraine.

c. Continue to enhance security cooperation with NATO

Security cooperation with NATO was an important foreign policy goal of the Zelensky government. Zelensky has said that bringing about the return of Donbass and Crimea and getting closer to NATO through the use of all mechanisms offered by the partnership is a priority for all Ukrainian diplomats. Before the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, although it was unlikely that Ukraine would join NATO in the short term due to the Crimea issue, the Zelensky government still regarded joining NATO as one of the important diplomatic goals. After Zelensky took office, the level of security cooperation with NATO continued to increase. In February 2020, Ukraine pledged to revise its National Security and Defense Strategy to make clear that "the ultimate goal of Ukraine is to formally join NATO." In June, Ukraine received NATO's sixth "Enhanced Capability Partner Country" status, integrating with NATO in terms of standards, command, logistics and training. On September 14, the Zelensky government explicitly proposed in the new National Security and Defense Strategy of Ukraine the development of strategic relations with key foreign partners, mainly practical cooperation with the European Union, the United States, NATO and its member states. On March 25, 2021, Zelensky's government officially proposed for the first time in the Military Security Strategy of Ukraine: "Ukraine will strengthen cooperation with the EU, NATO and the United States to promote Ukraine's integration into the Euro-Atlantic security space and NATO membership." The document also proposed: "The main direction of Ukraine's defense reform is NATO-ization, accelerating defense reform in accordance with Euro-Atlantic principles and standards, ensuring future membership in the EU and NATO, and ensuring that Ukraine has sufficient military capabilities."

Under the continuous efforts of the Zelensky government, the relations between Ukraine and NATO have been rapidly improved, and the cooperation mechanism and cooperation level have gradually approached that of an "associate member" of NATO. At the NATO summit in Vilnius in July 2023, NATO agreed to establish the NATO-Ukraine Council, in which NATO countries pledged to provide Ukraine with bilateral "long-term security commitments" and prepared to sign a bilateral security guarantee agreement with Ukraine. As of June 2024, Ukraine has signed bilateral security agreements with 15 NATO member states, receiving long-term commitments of military assistance.

d. Regard Russia as a threat to European security and strengthen the propaganda of the "Russian threat theory"

Zelensky cited the "Russian threat" as the main reason for strengthening strategic relations with the West, in order to build a community of security interests with European countries. Before the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine constantly propagated the "Russia threat" theory, encouraging central and Eastern European countries to obstruct energy cooperation between the EU and Russia, and prevent NATO from resuming security dialogue with Russia. At the same time, Zelensky constantly stressed the consistency of security interests and values between Ukraine and Europe, obstructed the "old European" countries represented by Germany and France to improve relations with Russia, and interfered with the plans of Germany and France and other countries to expand Russia-Europe energy cooperation and the construction and operation of the "Nord Stream 2" gas pipeline. In the conflict, Ukraine's diplomacy with Russia has focused on isolating and countering Russia, sanctioning and condemning Russian behavior at the bilateral and multilateral levels.

(2) The approach and characteristics of Ukraine's "one-sided" pro-Western diplomacy

While strengthening the strategic partnership with the United States, the European Union and other countries, Zelensky expanded the consensus with Western countries on the threat of Russia through various ways, and won more support for Ukraine from the international community.

a. Emphasize the consistency of security concepts and values with the West

First, we should actively support NATO's leadership in the European security system. Ukraine not only actively seeks to join NATO itself, but also supports the US-led NATO to play a leading role in European security affairs and supports the Western-led global order. After Zelensky came to power, he repeatedly watched NATO's military exercises in Europe and asked NATO to hold joint military exercises in its territory. On July 23, 2021, President Zelensky approved the "Urgent Measures on deepening Ukraine's integration into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization", reaffirming in law and policy that joining NATO is one of the most important national security tasks of Ukraine, and will take various diplomatic and technical measures to close military cooperation with NATO. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Zelensky continued to strengthen the unity of Ukraine and Western countries on security, describing Ukraine as a "fighter for the security of the Western world", and fought for more military aid and security support from the West to improve Ukraine's ability to resist Russia.

Second, highlight the value orientation of Ukraine's diplomacy. After the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in 2014, Ukraine completely turned to the West on the road of national development, respecting Western neoliberalism in terms of values, openly parting ways with the conservatism and "controlled democracy" advocated by Russia, and constantly emphasizing the consistency of values with Western countries. Since Zelensky came to power, he has constantly emphasized Ukraine's Western values in politics, and elevated Ukraine's accession to the European Union and NATO to the level of values and civilization. After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Zelensky repeatedly stressed that "Ukraine is fighting for the values of freedom and democracy." By emphasizing the unity of values between Ukraine and Western countries, the national interests of Ukraine and the Western world are further bound in the level of values. In a speech to the European Parliament, Zelensky said Ukraine shared values and history with the EU and that Ukraine was fighting Russia to protect the "European way of life." Zelensky said: "Ukrainian soldiers are fighting against the most anti-European forces in the world, linking the fate of Ukraine to the fate of all Europe... You cannot imagine a free Europe without a free Ukraine." In December 2023, Zelensky told the U.S. Congress that his country was fighting for "our freedom and your freedom," the biggest fight for freedom since World War II. Because of Ukraine's success in defense, other European countries were protected from Russian aggression.

b. Demonstrate Ukraine's moral high ground in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine

Compared with Russia, Ukraine is a weak and small country, limited by its own "weak" national power and lack of material resources, so Zelensky diplomacy uses morality as one of the areas of influence. Zelensky and the West are bound not only in terms of security and economic interests, but also in terms of values, morals and emotions to build trust and identity. The Zelensky government played the "humanitarian card" at the multilateral and bilateral diplomatic levels, and won the military aid and diplomatic support of the international community, especially the Western community, by showing the great damage caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to Ukrainian society. On April 7, 2022, 58 Member States, including Ukraine, the United States and the United Kingdom, co-sponsored a draft General Assembly resolution calling for the suspension of Russia's membership in the Human Rights Council, which was voted through. In the subsequent election for a seat on the Human Rights Council, Russia was ultimately defeated. On October 11, 2022, the United Nations General Assembly adopted a draft resolution entitled "Territorial Integrity of Ukraine: Defending the Principles of the Charter of the United Nations" by a large vote, with 143 out of 193 UN Member States voting in favour, indicating that Zelensky has made progress in developing diplomatic relations with non-Western countries.

According to the United Nations, the conflict has taken a huge toll on Ukrainian society, with more than 10 million Ukrainian civilians becoming refugees, 47 per cent of whom are women and 33 per cent are children. The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) has confirmed that more than 10,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed and nearly 20,000 injured in conflict-related violence during the two years of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On April 3, 2022, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense released a series of videos and pictures showing the deaths of civilians in the city of Bucha, accusing Russian forces of committing atrocities against these civilians. The incident triggered a serious anti-Russian humanitarian wave in Europe, and more than a dozen European countries have expelled more than 100 Russian diplomats. In October and December 2022, after the bombing of the Crimean Bridge, the Russian military launched a large-scale bombing of Ukraine's infrastructure for about two months, and Ukraine criticized Russia at multilateral platforms such as the United Nations Security Council, the European Parliament and the G20 leaders' Summit, calling for condemnation and isolation of Russia. Ukraine's humanitarian diplomacy has achieved some results, with many countries providing emergency humanitarian aid to Ukraine and escalating economic sanctions against Russia. At the same time, by constantly publicizing the humanitarian tragedy of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukraine has, to a certain extent, downplayed the mark of the geopolitical struggle of the major powers behind the Russia-Ukraine conflict, especially the reflection on the role of the US-led NATO in the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

c. Conduct multi-faceted and multi-tiered public diplomacy

Active public diplomacy was one of the important features of Ukrainian diplomacy during Zelensky's period. Since the beginning of the 21st century, international political actors have become increasingly diversified, expanding from government departments in the past to international organizations, multinational enterprises, non-governmental organizations, political parties and associations, etc. As a result, the objects of state diplomacy have gradually expanded from the traditional national diplomacy to interest groups and non-governmental organizations in the target countries. It can even interact directly with the general public in the target country. It has become an important means of public diplomacy to convey a country's foreign policy and position through Internet self-media and new media, win the public's support in politics and public opinion, and then influence the foreign policy decisions of the target country's government.

On the one hand, Ukraine is engaging in public diplomacy on social media. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is a famous actor turned politician. His ruling team has rich experience in media industry. From the announcement of election to the election, he has always insisted on communicating with the public through Internet media, and has accumulated rich experience in public relations. After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the mainstream Western social media platforms such as Facebook and Instagram publicized Zelensky's political and diplomatic activities in order to enhance Ukraine's international image and influence. Other senior Ukrainian officials Zalutzhny, Daniloff and Kuleba also frequently accept interviews with Western mainstream media, and even write articles on Western mainstream media, explaining Ukraine's diplomatic propositions, introducing the dynamics of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and striving for the attention of the international community on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Senior Ukrainian officials have even broken diplomatic protocol by publicly criticizing some Western leaders in an effort to put pressure on countries that have been slow or hesitant to come to Ukraine's aid. Through multiple public opinion propaganda and leadership image packaging, actively participate in bilateral and multilateral diplomatic activities to enhance Ukraine's exposure, introduce Ukraine's diplomatic propositions, and attract more national and international public opinion attention to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

On the other hand, Zelensky's image diplomacy is also the highlight of Ukraine's public diplomacy. After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, President Zelensky himself refused the advice of Britain, the United States and other countries to seek refuge abroad, and insisted on staying in Ukraine, ensuring the normal operation of the Ukrainian state machine during the war, and establishing a "hero" character in Ukraine and Western countries, which contributed a lot to improving the image of Ukraine's diplomacy and promoting Ukraine's diplomatic proposals. On 26 July 2022, the then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson presented the Winston Churchill Leadership Award to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. In May 2023, the German government awarded the visiting Zelensky the Charlemagne Prize. In order to win the support of other countries, Zelensky has been active in multilateral platforms such as the UN Security Council, the UN General Assembly, the G20 Summit, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and the World Economic Forum in Davos to publicize his own policy positions and propositions and win more assistance and support from countries. Zelensky quickly became a star statesman in the Western world for his performance in the geopolitical crisis.

4. Ukraine's strategic orientation adjustment and the dilemma between Russia and Ukraine

Through the study of Zelensky's diplomacy, it can be found that pro-Western diplomacy not only brings benefits to Ukraine, but also brings some negative effects, especially on the development and settlement of geopolitical crises. Pro-western diplomacy has won Ukraine a large amount of aid from NATO and EU countries, but it has also hindered Ukraine's escape from the geopolitical crisis. The following conclusions can be drawn from this.

First, pro-Western diplomacy is one of the important factors leading to the escalation of the Ukraine crisis. In his analysis of the balance of power theory, Kennedy Waltz observed that "increased power may or may not contribute to the achievement of security objectives." For example, when there are two alliances, if one is more successful in attracting other alliances, this behavior may induce the other to risk preventive war in the hope of winning by surprise before the gap in power widens." Zelensky's side-selection diplomacy unfortunately verified this view, Ukraine's strengthening of relations with Western countries not only failed to ease the Donbass conflict in eastern Ukraine, but intensified the geopolitical security competition between major powers in Ukraine, prompting Russia and the US-led NATO to "showdown" in Ukraine, and eventually led to the overall escalation and control of the Ukrainian crisis. Zelensky's "one-sided, pro-Western" foreign policy, while rapidly warming Ukraine's relations with the West, has also increased Russian insecurity. This strategic orientation has upset the already fragile strategic balance between the West and Russia in Ukraine, prompting Russia to launch special military operations in Ukraine. Therefore, the famous American scholar Mearsheimer believes that Putin launched a "preventive war", which has nothing to do with the so-called "imperial ambition".

Second, the pro-Western diplomacy is one of the important reasons why Ukraine has won the full support of the West in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The fact that Ukraine is weak does not mean that it has no role in international relations. The diplomatic practice of Ukraine during Zelensky's period shows that under the post-Cold War globalized international order, weak countries can also take the initiative to set international political issues with major powers and influence the direction of international order and relations between major powers. Although Ukraine has not yet joined the European Union and NATO, the Zelensky government still established an informal alliance with the West through multiple means such as "security interests diplomacy", "values diplomacy", "moral diplomacy" and public diplomacy. Ukraine has made the West realize that Russia's behavior is aimed at the collective West, awakened many European NATO members' security fear of Russia, bound Ukraine with the security interests of European countries, and granted Ukraine special ally status. From the perspective of maintaining the security of the "free world", the West has provided large-scale assistance to Ukraine, transforming from a "mediator" to a "participant" in the crisis. Zelensky's diplomacy turned a defeat with a high probability of power disparity into a stalemate in the strategic game of great powers.

Third, the limits of pro-Western diplomacy in geopolitical crises. Because Ukraine has not joined the European Union and NATO, Western countries have set political and security conditions for supporting Ukraine, providing only equipment, intelligence and training assistance, and explicitly refusing to send troops directly to the war. The supply of western arms to Ukraine is subject to certain political and security conditions. Western countries have demanded that Ukraine refrain from using Western weapons to attack the Russian mainland, avoid direct involvement in the war itself, and avoid aid to spur Russia to start a nuclear war. US President Joe Biden made it clear before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine that the United States would not directly send troops to help Ukraine defend against a possible "invasion" by Russia, but could impose "unprecedented" sanctions on Russia. The United States and the European Union have imposed a number of qualitative, quantitative and scope restrictions on the aid, not providing Ukraine with long-range weapons with a range of more than 500 kilometers, for fear of provoking Russian nuclear retaliation. In May 2024, although some European countries led by the United Kingdom lifted restrictions on the scope of weapons aid to Ukraine, the United States and Germany still insisted on a "limited lifting of the ban", which can only attack military targets near the Russian-Ukrainian border, not Moscow. The United States is also wary of lowering the threshold for Ukraine's NATO membership. Biden said the United States will not simplify the process of Ukraine joining NATO, and Ukraine still needs to meet all relevant prerequisites for membership. The United States and NATO have not agreed to fast-track Ukraine's accession in order to avoid direct NATO involvement in the conflict with Russia. In short, Western support for Ukraine is limited, and the bottom line is that it should not be burned.

Fourth, pro-Western diplomacy has undermined Ukraine's diplomatic autonomy. For smaller and weaker states, seeking to join a major-led alliance means allying with external forces to counter security threats, but it also implies a partial surrender of diplomatic autonomy. Zelensky's "one-sided" diplomatic practice of seeking to join the Western alliance shows that this policy may be used to maintain the security balance and prevent crises, but it will also become a burden and obstacle to escape and resolve crises. Western countries have a serious problem of mismatch between their positions and their willingness to support Ukraine. They are more active in supporting Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial claims, but some Western countries' willingness to help Ukraine out of the geopolitical crisis is not high. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered its third year, and Western countries led by the United States have exposed obvious "war fatigue" and are increasingly unable to assist Ukraine. The West led by the United States, from the perspective of maintaining the post-Cold War international order and the status of the United States as a superpower, and from the perspective of long-term containment and consumption of Russia, opposed the "partition and peace" between Ukraine and Russia, which led to the escalation and expansion of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the continuous increase of casualties and property losses in Ukraine, and the quagmire of the geopolitical game between major powers.

5.conclusion

Combing through the course of the adjustment of Ukraine's strategic orientation, it can be found that the geopolitical crisis caused by the competition between great powers continues to ferment in Ukraine, and the security pressure mixed with nationalism makes the space for Ukraine's foreign policy choices very limited. The only choice for the Zelensky government is to shift from the hedging strategy to the "one-sided" pro-Western strategy. The geopolitical crisis is both the cause of Zelensky's pro-Western diplomacy and the result of Zelensky's pursuit of an alliance with the West. The conflict in Donbass and the Crimea issue concern Ukraine's territorial integrity, national security and political stability, and the rising nationalism in Ukraine makes the Zelensky government's detente with Russia in its hedging strategy doomed to failure. However, Ukraine's shift to the strategy of choosing sides has not only failed to ease the contradictions, but accelerated the development of the geopolitical crisis, resulting in Ukraine's further integration into the West and the increasingly fierce geopolitical competition between major powers in Ukraine. The strategic orientation of Ukraine and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine put forward new thinking for the geopolitical theory: in the background of the rapid development of multipolarity in the world pattern, there are also certain risks for weak and small countries to "choose sides" in diplomacy and security. Seeking alliance diplomacy can not only build and maintain the "balance of power", but also break the "balance of power", leading to wars and crises. (Author: Zhang Hong, Researcher, Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)